AfD on the rise ahead of local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia

CDU leader Merz said that national politics would have "only a limited influence on the election results" in North Rhine-Westphalia. Nevertheless, he made several campaign appearances in his home state. Other leading German politicians also campaigned there, including Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD.

13.7 million eligible voters

Thousands of seats in the parliaments of the 427 municipalities – 396 cities and towns, and 31 districts – are at stake. Mayors, among others, will be elected. This state in western Germany has around 18 million inhabitants, of which 13.7 million are eligible to vote.

The state's largest city is Cologne, with just over one million inhabitants. There, non-partisan mayor Henriette Reker is not running for reelection after two terms in office. Her successor is open, with no candidate gaining ground in the polls. Problems with garbage, drug use, and social neglect in the city center are a central campaign issue in Germany's fourth-largest metropolis.

Satisfaction with Merz government at a low

According to the latest ARD "Deutschlandtrend" (Germany Trend), Germans' approval of the coalition in Berlin, dubbed "black-red" after the party's colors, has fallen to a record low: Only 22 percent of those surveyed in early September were satisfied with the government's work. This was seven percentage points lower than the previous month and 17 percentage points lower than two months earlier.

There have already been tensions within the coalition – for example, over the electricity tax, which, contrary to the original plan, will not be reduced for all citizens, and the scandal surrounding the disagreement over the election of an SPD candidate for the Federal Constitutional Court.

AfD with new high in poll

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its share of the vote in the February federal election compared to the previous election, reaching 20.8 percent, making it the second-largest party in the German parliament, the Bundestag. The party reached a new record high in the Sunday poll of ARD's "Deutschlandtrend" program just in September. According to the survey, if there were a federal election on Sunday, 25 percent of respondents would vote for the right-wing populists.

In the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD even emerged as the strongest party in a recent poll, receiving 39 percent of the vote a year before the parliamentary elections. The AfD is particularly strong in eastern Germany. In North Rhine-Westphalia, which borders Belgium and the Netherlands, it only entered the state parliament in 2017—a comparatively late step—and was re-elected in 2022 with only 5.4 percent.

In the most recent local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) in 2020, the CDU received by far the largest share of the vote, with 34.3 percent, while the AfD received 5.1 percent. In the state capital of Düsseldorf, the CDU, led by Minister-President Hendrik Wüst, governs in a coalition with the Greens.

AfD with chances in the Ruhr area

Political scientists now expect significant gains for the right-wing populists in North Rhine-Westphalia as well. "Especially in structurally weak regions with industrial decline – such as Gelsenkirchen or Duisburg – the AfD has a good chance of expanding its results and establishing itself permanently," said Oliver Lembcke of the University of Bochum at the end of August.

The right-wing populists had already won the Gelsenkirchen constituency in the federal election in February. The struggling mining town in the Ruhr region, known for its former coal and steel industries, has the highest unemployment rate in Germany.