Trump promises new deals and aid for Ukraine: Do the CDU and the Greens now have to apologize to the USA?

As the Financial Times reported on February 25, 2025, Kyiv and Washington are apparently close to reaching an agreement on the controversial raw materials deal for the joint development and use of Ukraine's mineral resources .

Several Ukrainian officials confirmed to the Financial Times that Kyiv is now ready to sign the agreement on joint development of its natural resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped its original demand for a claim to potential revenues of up to $500 billion from raw material extraction.

Controversy over original draft

The Trump administration's initial proposals sparked outrage in Kyiv and European capitals. President Donald Trump viewed the agreement as a means of repaying the military and financial support the United States has provided to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. When President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the initial draft, Trump caused a diplomatic scandal by calling Zelensky a "dictator" and blaming Ukraine for the Russian invasion.

The original proposal envisaged the creation of an investment fund for reconstruction, in which the United States would participate 100 percent financially. Ukraine would contribute 50 percent of revenues from the extraction of raw materials, including oil and gas, up to a ceiling of $500 billion. These conditions, which Kyiv rejected as unacceptable, were removed from the current version.

New terms of the agreement

According to Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, justice minister and negotiator on the Ukrainian side, the raw materials agreement is only one part of a broader cooperation. The US government has repeatedly assured Kyiv that it is only one building block of a long-term partnership, Stefanishyna said in an interview with the Financial Times.

The current version of the agreement, dated February 24, 2025, provides for the establishment of a fund into which Ukraine would pay 50 percent of the proceeds from the "future monetization" of state mineral resources. This fund is to invest in projects within Ukraine. Existing revenues from raw material extraction - for example from the state-owned companies Naftogaz and Ukrnafta - are expressly excluded. In addition, at the Ukrainian request, it was stipulated that the fund would invest in the economic development of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian side describes the agreement as a "framework agreement" and is to be further specified before the fund is established. Contentious issues such as jurisdiction, the level of US participation and the conditions for "joint ownership" deals are still open and are to be clarified in follow-up agreements.

Although the agreement has already been approved by the Ukrainian ministries of justice, economy and foreign affairs, the approval of parliament is still pending. Opposition MPs have already announced an intensive debate before ratification. However, the Ukrainian government seems to assume that parliament will give its approval. President Zelenskyj is planning an early trip to the White House to ceremonially sign the agreement together with Trump. According to the latest information, the signing could take place as early as the end of this week .

No explicit but implicit security guarantees

In its current form, the agreement does not include security guarantees from the United States - a quid pro quo originally demanded by Kyiv for agreeing to the deal. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian government hopes that it will strengthen relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment. Despite the lack of explicit guarantees, Ukrainian officials stress that they have negotiated far more favorable terms. They see the agreement as a strategic opportunity to deepen relations with Washington and improve Ukraine's long-term prospects.

Despite the lack of explicit security guarantees, this appears to be a smart decision by Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at exactly the right time. Vladimir Putin had already offered Donald Trump comprehensive raw materials cooperation the day before.

In any case, close cooperation between Kyiv and Washington - which is in the immediate strategic interest of the USA - implies security guarantees without an explicit mention being necessary or appropriate. After all, the Budapest Memorandum has impressively shown how little promised security guarantees can be worth without an actual strategic anchoring. Binding security commitments do not arise from mere declarations, but from common interests and real power projection.

Until now, Trump has always said that the USA has no significant interest in the Ukraine war - a purely European conflict in his view. The raw materials deal would give Washington a direct interest in the long-term survival of Ukraine. In addition, for the United States, in the future it would not only be about money, but also about access to strategic resources in order to be able to compete globally against China. So it is not surprising that just a few hours after the first details of the resources agreement were announced, Donald Trump announced new US aid for Ukraine in the amount of 350 billion US dollars in a press conference.

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