Debt rules: Reform of the debt brake – is it happening very quickly now?

Shortly after the election, a debate broke out about a reform of the debt brake by the existing Bundestag. In view of the election result, the Greens spoke out in favor of the old Bundestag passing a reform. CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz does not rule this out, nor does he rule out the establishment of a special fund for aid to Ukraine. "Our deliberations on this are not complete," said Merz. He announced talks on the matter with the SPD, Greens and FDP. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) reacted cautiously.

A two-thirds majority is needed to reform the debt brake enshrined in the Basic Law. In the new Bundestag, however, the AfD and the Left Party have just over a third of the seats. The two parties on the political fringes thus have a so-called blocking minority together. Even if the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens were to agree on a reform, they would not have the required majority in the new Bundestag.

According to Article 39 of the Basic Law, the new Bundestag must meet no later than 30 days after the election. That would be March 25. A reform of the debt brake by the old Bundestag would have to take place under great time pressure, even with a special session. The Union, SPD and Greens together would have the required majority. The Bundesrat would also have to agree with a two-thirds majority.

Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) said on ARD's "Morgenmagazin": "We no longer have a two-thirds majority in the new German Bundestag to change the constitution so that we can do more for education, more for infrastructure, more for defense. But we could sit down with the existing Bundestag this month, with Alliance 90/The Greens, with the CDU/CSU, with the SPD, to ensure that we can spend more on national defense."

As Chancellor, Friedrich Merz promises a major change of course in Germany. But his victory is narrow, his future alliances are shaky. And he may lack the decisive majority for the most important reform

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) and Greens candidate for chancellor Robert Habeck also spoke out in favor of reform within the next few weeks. In view of the rapprochement between Donald Trump's US government and Russia, the main question is how Germany can cope with rising defense spending. Habeck also called for large-scale investments to stimulate the economy.

A reform of the debt brake, which would only allow new debt to be taken on to a limited extent, has been debated for a long time. A dispute over whether to use an exception to the debt brake because of the billions in aid to Ukraine was a main reason for the failure of the traffic light coalition. The FDP rejected this.

Merz said that the current Bundestag will remain in office until March 24th. "That means we now have four weeks to think about it." There will be a blocking minority in the next Bundestag "of the far left and the far right," said Merz. Such a case could arise if a proposal is abstained from voting or rejected. "Then we will no longer have a majority to change the Basic Law" and, for example, to elect judges to the Federal Constitutional Court. "That is a difficult situation," admitted Merz.

Friedrich Merz trembled his way to election victory, with a complicated result. The CDU man now wants to form a government quickly. That is not certain

The Bundeswehr needs a lot more money. He is generally of the opinion that the state must make do with the money that taxpayers pay, said Merz. Union faction manager Thorsten Frei had previously rejected a reform by the existing Bundestag. He said that the state collects around 1 trillion euros in taxes per year. The current situation requires a reprioritization of state tasks.

With regard to a rapid reform of the debt brake, Chancellor Scholz said that if such a move were to take place, it would have to be the result of contacts between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. "Anything else makes no sense and that is why I do not want to get ahead of myself." There has been no contact so far. If talks were to take place, "everything possible would have to be discussed, with the greatest caution of course." It is rare, but not impossible, for the old Bundestag to meet again after a federal election.

The Left Party could agree to a constitutional amendment to reform the debt brake on the condition that more state money is invested in social infrastructure. However, they will not vote for rearmament, said party leader Ines Schwerdtner.