Israeli Prime Minister to Trump: Netanyahu's dilemma between ceasefire and "surrender"

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House to discuss Gaza. Since the end of the Iran war almost two weeks ago, Trump has repeatedly emphasized his desire for a ceasefire there as well. A US proposal reportedly calls for an initial 60-day ceasefire, with the gradual release of Israeli hostages held by the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas since the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

According to Palestinian sources, more than 57,000 people have been killed in the Gaza War; scientists estimate the death toll is even higher . Because Israel has long blocked aid deliveries to Gaza and continues to impose severe restrictions, the Palestinian population is suffering from hunger, water shortages, and inadequate medical care.

Hamas has examined the US proposal and is now reportedly insisting that an agreement include a guarantee for a permanent end to the war. The organization also wants the UN to be involved again in the distribution of aid. For several weeks now, this has been organized by a newly created foundation headed by a Trump confidant, and people are regularly shot on their way to the food distribution point . Hamas also appears to have objections to the timetable for the release of hostages.

Late Saturday evening, following a meeting with his cabinet, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement in which he called Hamas's demands "unacceptable." "In light of an assessment of the situation," however, he would nevertheless send a negotiating team to Qatar for talks this Sunday. This "assessment" may be influenced by US President Trump's public promise of an agreement for Gaza. Trump had already participated in a hostage deal in January, but in March Israel broke the agreed ceasefire and has been fighting with undiminished severity ever since.

Netanyahu's return to war is primarily attributed in Israel to his right-wing extremist coalition partners . His Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned from the government at the time in protest against an agreement. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to bring it to a standstill. As soon as the Israeli army resumed its airstrikes, Ben-Gvir returned to the cabinet table. And even now, almost four months later, the two politicians are pushing for a continuation of the war. Israeli media reported that Ben-Gvir called on Netanyahu to abandon his "capitulation concept" and aim for victory. Last week, Army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir also clashed with the two politicians on several occasions.

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Zamir reportedly said that 75 percent of the Gaza Strip was already under Israeli control and that Hamas had already been defeated. He was quoted as saying: "Hamas is a dead organization. We saw in the war against Iran that they did nothing. They fired a single rocket. The hostages are the most important thing right now." Ben-Gvir nevertheless pushed for the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza.

If Netanyahu agrees to an agreement despite the resistance of the national-religious settlers in his cabinet, he faces a coalition breakdown and new elections. Netanyahu is certainly in a much stronger political position than he was in January. The Iran war and his personal success in persuading the US to use its bunker-busting bombs against Iranian nuclear facilities could now benefit him both in negotiations with his radical coalition partners and in a potential election campaign.

And yet, he now faces a major decision: If he follows Trump's plan, it would open up options for normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. Strengthened by his military success in Iran, Netanyahu could attempt to form a coalition without the far-right forces. Whether this will actually happen remains to be seen: so far, he has instead sought to combat democratic pillars such as the judicial system and state oversight bodies.

Israeli observers, in any case, already seem to recognize that Netanyahu is in campaign mode, evidenced, among other things, by his visit to Kibbutz Nir Oz near the Gaza Strip. Last week, he and his wife traveled to the site for the first time since the massacre in October 2023, where terrorists killed 30 people and abducted more than 75. During the visit, he also met with the mother of a young man who is still in Gaza – and who belongs to the more radical protest movement in Israel.

But an election would be a risk, and Netanyahu has a lot to lose. It was not for nothing that Trump recently called on social media for an end to the ongoing corruption trial against the Israeli prime minister. While Trump has no right to interfere in the Israeli judiciary in this way, he is nevertheless describing a crucial problem: If Netanyahu were not threatened with conviction, it would probably be easier for him to leave.