The Poles elect a successor to Andrzej Duda.

In a runoff election today, Poles will elect a new president. The final polls before the vote suggest a thrilling electoral thriller. Liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki are virtually tied. Yet their visions for their country are diametrically opposed. Deeply divided Poland faces a pivotal election. It will significantly determine the course of the EU and NATO member—with repercussions for Germany and Europe.

"Forward or Back?" was the headline of Polityka magazine in its latest issue – and this highlights the dilemma facing Germany's eastern neighbor. If Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski wins the race, then the pro-European head of government, Donald Tusk, will have a party friend and strong ally in the presidential palace who will support him in his reform course.

If the non-partisan historian Nawrocki prevails, Tusk will be in a bad position. Because Nawrocki is supported by the right-wing conservative PiS, Poland's largest opposition party. Nawrocki could use his veto power to block bills, making it virtually impossible for Tusk to govern. The result could be an unstable Poland and early elections—and a possible return of the PiS to power.

Poland has been a member of the EU since 2004. Over the past two decades, the country, with its 37.5 million inhabitants, has experienced steady economic growth—except for a slight dip caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Since 2015, average income has more than doubled and currently stands at the equivalent of €2,113.

A network of highways, partly subsidized with EU funds, crisscrosses the country. There are no dead spots; Polish railway trains usually run on time. In many places, attractive homes with double garages and solar panels testify that prosperity has also reached the countryside. And everywhere, people pay cashlessly with Blik, a state-owned mobile payment system.

Russia's war of aggression against neighboring Ukraine has enhanced Poland's role as a NATO partner. The country is an important logistical hub for Western military aid to Kyiv.

Poland also feels threatened by Russia and is massively rearming. This year, it plans to spend 4.7 percent of its gross domestic product on defense. Its armed forces number 206,000 soldiers—significantly more than the German Bundeswehr.

However, opinions on how Poland should position itself in light of its growing importance vary widely within the population. The first round of elections showed that the liberal, pro-European Trzaskowski has his voters primarily in the cities. The 53-year-old Warsaw mayor advocates for the rights of the LGBT community, speaks five foreign languages, and has a strong international network from his time as deputy foreign minister.

But in rural areas, the number of people who feel that their interests are being neglected in the rapid changes in society is growing. Many supporters of Karol Nawrocki say they want "normality." They mean a return to a traditional, Catholic-influenced family model. And they want less Europe, less migration, and more nationhood.

Nawrocki, 42, is a man with a troubled past. He was an amateur boxer and bouncer in his youth, retaining connections in the red-light district from that time, and was involved in a mass brawl between football hooligans in 2009. None of this necessarily speaks to normality.

But Nawrocki skillfully plays on people's fears. During the election campaign, he warned that the EU wanted to turn Poland into a "district with a population of Polish descent" and deprive the country of its sovereignty. "Why should we hand over command of the Polish armed forces to Brussels when Ursula von der Leyen didn't even have the Bundeswehr under control?" The public likes this – and no one questions whether such plans even exist.

Another factor in this election is political disenchantment. Many people are simply fed up with the battle between 68-year-old Donald Tusk and 75-year-old Jaroslaw Kaczynski that has dominated their country's politics for more than 20 years. This explains why more than 21 percent of voters cast ballots for two right-wing extremist candidates in the first round, said Agnieszka Lada-Konefal of the German Polish Institute. "That was a red card for these two gentlemen. Young voters, in particular, no longer identify with them."

Right-wing extremist Slawomir Mentzen and the openly anti-Semitic Grzegoz Braun were eliminated in the first round of voting. Many of their supporters are protest voters, whose behavior in the runoff is difficult to predict. However, the assumption is that a large proportion will vote for Nawrocki.