Milei's dilemma: applause from her platform or investment
If the President focuses on what happens to Argentines, especially those who trust his administration, confronting and polarizing against Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) or Axel Kicillof suits him, because he presents the alternative as "Kirchnerism (the failed past) or us (what's different from the past)."
According to various public opinion pollsters, Kirchnerism, led by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, still maintains approximately 30% electoral support. Milei reportedly enjoys 45% of the electorate. That's why Milei has approximately half of Argentine voters against her, while at the same time, around three-quarters oppose Kirchnerism. That said, Kirchnerism cannot easily win elections today, and Milei remains competitive at the polls . But Kirchnerism, which cannot easily win elections today, maintains a very high base from which to compete in future electoral contests.
Milei's leitmotif as president is to stabilize and grow the economy. And with an appreciated exchange rate and a trade deregulation plan, the country could suffer a process of deindustrialization and unemployment, unless he implements a plan of structural reforms that allow for increased production and the sale of what he produces. Can he? It depends.
First, the government would need several laws passed to achieve the tax, labor, and pension reforms so necessary to, among other things, lower production costs. Even if it comfortably wins the legislative elections on October 26, it will not have a majority in either chamber, so it will continue to need the support of other forces. However, its staunch ally, the Pro Party (Pro), has been severely mistreated and ignored since the last legislative election in Buenos Aires, and this could erode its electoral support. And other LLA allies could begin to withdraw their support if, for example, Milei and her "star" representatives continue to harass such worthy and sensitive causes for society, such as the survival of the Garrahan River or the necessary disability assistance.
Second, and related to the above, for economic growth to continue, Milei needs productive investments to come to the country. And these depend on the necessary reforms, which could be blocked if the government doesn't show greater dialogue. And they also depend on making Argentina visible abroad as a trustworthy country.
Country risk remains very high, therefore, the confidence that Argentina generates abroad is low, and this happens largely because what makes Milei gain support among many Argentines ("it's either Kirchnerism that did everything wrong or us") is what makes him lose confidence among external investors ("if we libertarians don't win, on the other side there is only Soviet Kirchnerism").
Any economic plan, and Milei's in particular, could fail due to the context of latent and concrete wars in other latitudes, and potentially volatile international financial conditions in a critical global juncture, as the libertarian government increasingly attacks its potential allies, which could complicate the passage of laws and the implementation of necessary reforms.
Therefore, while clashing with CFK or Kicillof gives Milei a platform, foreign investors may not dare to land in a country where, if the libertarian plan fails, there is nothing left (as Milei himself repeats) but "Soviet Kirchnerism."
Political Scientist and Professor at the UBA
lanacion
