New survey on the Province of Buenos Aires: Cristina Kirchner leads and a positive surprise for the national government

A new study by the consulting firm Management & Fit has yielded unexpected results in the province of Buenos Aires , a key territory for Kirchnerism in view of the legislative elections. AlthoughCristina Kirchner leads the individual voting intention, her advantage over José Luis Espert (LLA) is minimal. In addition, in the measurement by political space, La Libertad Avanza surpasses Unión por la Patria, which marks a significant change in the electoral map of Buenos Aires.

The survey was conducted between February 10 and 21, before and after the scandal over the cryptocurrency $LIBRA, and included 2,200 cases nationwide, with a specific cut of 800 respondents in the province of Buenos Aires.

Before entering the electoral stage, the survey presented data on the perception of government management and the image of the main political parties in the district.

Regarding the performance of President Javier Milei , the survey shows a 47.1% approval and a 50.5% disapproval among the people of Buenos Aires. In the case of Governor Axel Kicillof , the numbers are less favorable: 38.1% approval and 57.3% rejection.

Regarding the image of political parties, La Libertad Avanza has a positive rating of 34.1% and a negative rating of 47.2%, while Unión por la Patria registers 29.9% support and 50.9% rejection.

As for the leaders with the best differential in the province, Deputy Leandro Santoro (UP) leads with a 30.5% positive image and the same percentage of negative image. At the other extreme, Mauricio Macri is the politician with the worst differential, with a 16.7% positive image compared to a 57.1% negative image.

One of the central aspects of the study is the voting intention in the province of Buenos Aires, where the national government receives encouraging news. When asked if they would vote for a candidate in favor of or against Milei, 43.3% said they would support a candidate aligned with the ruling party, while 48.6% would lean towards an opposition candidate.

The data is positive for the Government, since the margin of difference is small considering that it is a Kirchnerist stronghold. However, it marks a setback compared to January, when the Casa Rosada had a balance in its favour with 46.6% support and 45.1% rejection.

The biggest surprise for the ruling party comes in the measurement by political space. La Libertad Avanza leads with 35.1%, surpassing Unión por la Patria by four points, which is at 31.1%. Although the advantage has been reduced compared to last month, when it was eight points (38.7% versus 30.7%), it is still an unexpected result in the country's main electoral district.

In the candidate survey, Kirchner leads the list with 24.7%, closely followed by Espert, who reaches 23.9%. The surprise in this scenario is Juan Grabois , who with 13.9% positions himself as an alternative within Kirchnerism.

Karina Milei (LLA) and Diego Santilli (PRO) are next in line, both with 8.1%. Further down are a left-wing candidate with 4.4%, Daniel Parisini (Gordo Dan) of LLA with 2.5%, Pablo Domenichini (UCR) with 0.6% and Miguel Fernández (UCR) with 0.8%. In addition, 4.3% would vote for another candidate, 2.2% would choose a blank vote and 6.5% said they would not vote or did not respond.

The results of the survey reflect a changing scenario in the province of Buenos Aires, with a tight competition between Cristina Kirchner and José Luis Espert, and a consolidation of La Libertad Avanza as the first force in voting intention for political space.

Although Kirchnerism remains a key player in the district, the decline in Cristina's lead and the growth of Espert and Grabois show a fragmentation of the electorate. At the same time, the national government manages to maintain a good level of support in a historically adverse territory, which raises questions about the electoral strategy in view of the legislative elections.