Plan B, plan C, plan D…

Donald Trump 's bullying rhetoric towards Mexico no longer surprises anyone.

We had warned him: when the month-long deadline for tariffs was up, if he did not apply them he would put them on hold anyway in order to continue using that card whenever he found it necessary. His threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products have set off all the alarms for a month now. And if he has not implemented them it is because he is taking the temperature of the markets. But perhaps we are no longer talking about electoral bravado, but about concrete policies that could be implemented in a matter of weeks.

The question is not whether hard times will come, but how we will respond to them. Economic history has taught us that tariff wars never have winners, only different degrees of losers. However, this challenge could be the jolt Mexico needs to diversify its economic model and reduce its dependence on the U.S. market.

The Mexican government and business community must accelerate trade diversification into other markets. The modernized agreement with the European Union remains underused, the Pacific Alliance offers opportunities to strengthen a regional market, and our participation in the CPTPP can be significantly deepened.

Talks with India, the ASEAN bloc and Middle Eastern markets cannot wait any longer. Now is the time to establish special economic zones in southern Mexico that will allow us to reorient our supply chains toward these emerging markets.

If tariffs materialize, Mexico must implement a surgical response. This is not about a generalized tariff war, but about choosing strategic products from key Republican states. But we must also diversify our suppliers of staple foods, such as corn and wheat, an area where our dependence on the U.S. is alarming.

Advance legal preparation for resorting to international dispute settlement mechanisms must begin now. In the meantime, we need to design temporary support programs for the most vulnerable sectors, such as the automotive, agricultural and electronics sectors.

The most ambitious, but perhaps most necessary, plan requires a genuine national industrial policy. Economic sovereignty cannot remain just rhetoric. We need to develop our own technological capabilities, strengthen our internal market and create sovereign funds to protect strategic sectors. Combining an energy strategy that guarantees security of supply while moving towards renewable sources will be essential for this economic autonomy.

For Mexican entrepreneurs, this crisis must be turned into an opportunity. Reverse nearshoring – establishing operations in third countries to triangulate exports – can become an effective short-term strategy. Investment in automation and robotization will help maintain competitiveness even with tariffs.

The development of alternative markets should be a priority for all Mexican companies, not just the large ones. Strategic mergers with companies from third countries can open doors. And investment in research and development to migrate towards products with higher added value is no longer optional.

For decades, analysts have warned about the risks of Mexico’s excessive economic dependence on the US. Today, that warning is materializing in concrete threats. The irony is that Trump , in his attempt to “punish” Mexico, could end up being the catalyst that finally drives the transformation of our economic model towards a more diversified, resilient and sovereign one.

It is not about abandoning our relationship with the US, which will continue to be our main trading partner, but about building a Mexico that is less vulnerable to the political ups and downs of our northern neighbor. Difficult times are just around the corner. The question is: will we have the vision and determination to turn this crisis into the historic opportunity that Mexico has been waiting for for decades?