They warn that US$3.6 billion was missing to meet a key goal of the Fund.

Although the government managed to increase gross reserves, which climbed to their highest level in the last two and a half years, it did so through borrowing. Analysts warn that this would not be the most virtuous way to swell the Central Bank's (BCRA) coffers and that sooner or later it will have to buy "genuine" dollars. The second half of the year is proving challenging: a period of seasonally lower agricultural sales and increased demand for foreign currency from imports, outbound tourism, and the dollarization of savings portfolios in an electoral context and the elimination of the currency controls.

On Thursday, gross assets closed at US$40.241 billion. Thus, this week they surpassed the psychological barrier of US$40 billion for the first time since February 2023. However, this is far from the US$50 billion that President Javier Milei promised for May during his national address last month, in which he announced the new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from the White Room of the Casa Rosada.

This year, the government managed to increase its coffers through borrowing: US$3 billion from REPOs with international banks, US$12 billion from the IMF, and US$8 billion, according to estimates by the consulting firm Vectorial. Added to this is another US$1.5 billion from the Bonte 2030 program. Without accounting for these mechanisms, during the Libertarian administration, the total gross national debt stock has grown by more than US$35 billion.

It's worth remembering that since the implementation of the new exchange rate regime, the Central Bank has not intervened in the MULC, as the government expects the exchange rate to fall below the band's floor so it can purchase. Thus, this year's reserve accumulation is a risky bridge, given that IMF disbursements inflate reserves today but carry increasing payments starting in 2026, and a reduced capacity to react to external shocks. "Can this achieve stability? Yes, as long as the capital now freed up doesn't decide to leave, it can manage some control over variables," Hernán Herrera, a researcher at the Instituto Argentina Grande (IAG), told PERFIL.

"It doesn't seem to me to be the most 'virtuous' and sustainable way to accumulate reserves and have a cushion to avoid volatility that may arise domestically or abroad. As long as the dollars aren't provided by the real economy (exports), taking on debt (the capital account of the balance of payments) poses a risk that, when realized, can have serious consequences, as we saw in 2018-19," Ramiro Tosi, an economist at Suramericana Visión and former Secretary of Finance, added to this outlet.

While the Fund welcomed the economic team's decision, according to LCG estimates, net international reserves, based on IMF methodology, fell US$3.6 billion short of the target established as of June 13. Therefore, it was decided to postpone the review. A delegation from the international organization is scheduled to arrive in the country next week to assess the new program's compliance metrics.

However, this initial performance does not guarantee that the balance will remain unchanged. Going forward, the ruling party is banking on the situation. But it will be difficult for it to accumulate reserves through other means, and the US$4.5 billion in global and bond payments on July 9th are in the way.

The second half of the year is a seasonally lower period for agricultural sales. According to Ciara-CEC, in the first five months of the year, the agro-industrial sector contributed US$11.7 billion. “There are other exports, but it's true that the most seasonal variation is April-June. To make matters worse, it came much earlier due to the temporary reduction in withholding taxes, so the drop will be significant in the second half of the year,” Martín Burgos, an economist at the Cultural Center for Cooperation, told PERFIL.

The second issue is that as the economic recovery increases, it could translate into an increase in imports, and that means dollars are lost. In the first five months of the year, there was a surge in imports, significantly reducing the trade surplus compared to the same period last year: US$7.266 billion less than in 2024.

In turn, Argentines will demand more dollars to dollarize, in the context of an election year without currency controls, and an increase in outbound tourism. In the fourth month of the year, savers purchased US$2.048 billion and US$863 million in tourism, although analysts expect this latter figure to increase due to the winter holidays and the exchange rate lag.

"Add to that the external asset formation (FAE) at levels of $2.01 billion in April; if we assume this continues, we're talking about almost $20 billion between April and December. At this point, we'll reach December with $25 billion in gross reserves," Burgos warned.

"In structural terms, the second half of the year is always the time when you deaccumulate foreign currency. It seems there won't be much more dollar inflows than the financial account. So, taking into account the demand for foreign currency that the Argentine economy traditionally faces in the second half of the year, there's clearly some difficulty in maintaining the exchange rate peg," Haroldo Montagú, chief economist at Vectorial, told this outlet.

Although the government is banking on the 2023 Bonte (Bonte) to add around $1 billion monthly by the end of the year to meet the IMF target, sooner or later the economic team will have to purchase "genuine dollars" in anticipation of the 2026 maturity profile, either through acquisitions in the MULC (Mexican Central Bank of Mexico) or through Treasury purchases due to a fiscal surplus. Next year, $19 billion of debt matures: $10 billion in principal and $9 billion in interest. While the first portion could be refinanced, though country risk would have to fall to access capital markets, the remaining $9 billion must be leveraged in cash, dollar by dollar.