Aragon's economy is slowing due to falling exports but is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025.

Aragon's growth is slowing due to the fall in exports, but it remains dynamic. Data for the first quarter of 2025 show that the region's GDP grew by 2.9% annually , which is nine-tenths of a percentage point lower than the fourth quarter of 2024, when it stood at 3.8% and only one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the first quarter of last year.

Despite this decline, Aragon's growth has been slightly higher than the Spanish average - one tenth of a percentage point higher - and is 1.4 percentage points above the European Union average (1.5%), according to estimates made by the Aragonese Institute of Statistics (AEST) based on data from the Spanish Quarterly National Accounts (CNTR) published by the INE and included in the latest Economic Situation Bulletin prepared by the Aragonese government.

Despite this year-on-year decline, the growth forecast for Aragon for 2025 as a whole stands at 2.4% per year, within a context marked by the positive performance of all sectors of activity, but also taking into account the increased uncertainty and the situation of the global economy as a result of the US administration's tariff policy under President Donald Trump, which has led to a cascade of downward revisions to economic forecasts by various organizations such as the OECD and the IMF, among others.

Within Aragon, by sector of activity, all are showing positive growth , although in most cases, there is less dynamism compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

For example, in the agriculture and livestock sector, the rate has dropped from 5.3% in the last three months of last year to 6.9% in the first quarter of 2025. Despite this, there is also a decline in growth compared to the 12% recorded in the first quarter of last year.

In the case of industry , the first quarter of 2025 closes at 3.6%, four percentage points above the same period in 2024, but below the 6.6% growth with which the fourth quarter closed.

The construction sector remains at a positive pace, with 4% growth in the first three months of 2025 compared to 5.8% and 4.8% in the first and fourth quarters of last year, respectively.

And in the services sector, growth stood at 2.6% in the first quarter of this year, while in the first three months of 2014 and the last quarter of last year it was 1.9% and 3.9%, respectively.

On the demand side, indicators also show positive data, with the exception of exports and imports of goods and services , which registered a decline in the first quarter of 2025 of 9.5% and 3.5%, respectively.

For its part, household final consumption remains strong, reaching 5.9% in the first three months of this year compared to 1.3% in 2024, while public administration final consumption reaches 3%.

Regarding investment in construction, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% was observed in the first three months of the year, a figure that is also lower than the 8.1% annual rate for the last quarter of 2024 in the Aragonese region. And, regarding investment in machinery and capital goods, it increased from 8.7% in the last quarter of 2024 to 10.2% in the first three months of 2025.

In terms of employment, the labor market is also showing positive growth, with an annual increase of 0.8% , according to data from the Labor Force Survey (EPA). This figure brings the unemployment rate to 8.3% of the working population in Aragon in the first quarter. In Spain, it is 11.4%.

In the first quarter of 2025, employment increased in construction and services and decreased in agriculture and industry . Specifically, in the industrial sector, employment fell by 1% annually this winter, compared to the 7.3% annual decline experienced in the fall. In the case of agricultural activity, the negative rate of change was 10% year-on-year.

In the services sector, the positive year-on-year growth rate is 0.9%, lower than the 2.7% annual growth recorded in the previous quarter. In construction, growth of 15.2% was recorded, a positive figure but contrasting with the 21% annual growth rate in the last quarter of 2024.