June inflation is expected to rise slightly to 2%, and seasonal pressure is anticipated in July.

After registering its lowest level since the pre-pandemic period in May, June inflation is believed to have accelerated slightly, driven primarily by increases in regulated prices and services. Looking ahead to July, analysts predict a new floor due to seasonal effects and previously confirmed adjustments in sensitive areas such as education, transportation, rentals, and health insurance .

According to private estimates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be between 1.7% and 2%, higher than the 1.5% reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census ( INDEC ) in May. That was the lowest monthly inflation rate since May 2020, at the height of the lockdown due to the pandemic. Excluding that context, a similar figure has not been seen since November 2017.

The INDEC wholesale price report showed a 0.3% drop in June, marking the first month of deflation since April 2020. Although this decline represents an encouraging sign for production costs, it does not imply an immediate transfer to consumers. Factors such as demand, marketing margins, logistics, and regulated prices continue to determine inflationary dynamics.

The price increase in June was explained by several regulated factors, including public transportation in AMBA and CABA, private school fees, fuel, cigarettes, and prepaid medicine. In addition, food prices rebounded slightly compared to May, when the drop in vegetable prices had been key to moderating overall inflation.

Economist Rocío Bisang (EcoGo) noted that her preliminary estimate places the CPI at 2%, highlighting that "June was a busy month in terms of regulated items." Similarly, Claudio Caprarulo (Analytica) projected a 1.7% increase, while Camilo Tiscornia (C&T) also estimated a 2% increase, considering the lower impact of the Hot Sale and the rebound in some fresh produce.

Aldo Abram , executive director of the Freedom and Progress Foundation, explained that the low May index was due to a forced correction by companies, after anticipating a possible jump in the exchange rate that didn't occur. "Now we see a CPI more aligned with the evolution of the dollar," he emphasized.

Orlando Ferreres also estimated June inflation at around 2% and predicted a range of 1% to 1.5% for July, although he warned that the stronger economy and consumption could push inflation higher.

For July, analysts warn of the typical winter seasonality and the effect of the mid-year bonus, which tends to increase prices in areas related to recreation, domestic tourism, and gastronomy. Added to this are confirmed increases in education, transportation, private health insurance, and rent.

In Buenos Aires City and the province of Buenos Aires, state-subsidized private schools will see increases of between 2.4% and 4.2%. Public transportation (bus, subway, and premetro) will see a 3.5% increase, according to the new formula that combines the CPI with a 2% surcharge.

Prepaid medical insurance companies have already notified their members that July premiums will increase by between 1.1% and 1.9%. Meanwhile, tenants with contracts under the old rental law will face a 66.11% increase, according to the Rental Contract Index (ICL).

The rise in international oil prices, caused by the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, has led to further local fuel price increases. Oil companies Shell and Puma implemented a 5% increase in gasoline and diesel fuel due to fears of a possible blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude oil and 30% of its liquefied natural gas transit.

Although crude oil prices have fallen again, analysts are cautiously monitoring the geopolitical impact on domestic costs, especially if international tensions continue into July.