New electoral survey and surprise in the Province: Cristina leads, but by less than one point

A new electoral survey by the consulting firm Management & Fit in the The province of Buenos Aires left several surprises/news, generally rather negative for Kirchnerism and positive for the national government. Example? In a poll by candidate, among a dozen possibilities, Cristina Kirchner leads, but by less than one point .

The Buenos Aires district, it is understood, is the one where Kirchnerism plans to take refuge and survive thinking about a return in 2027. These numbers generate an alert. Especially because in the measurement by space, La Libertad Avanza directly leads .

Management & Fit is one of the best-known pollsters in the world of politics . It has worked with most of the main spaces: in 2023, for example, it was close to Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and also has ties to the governments of Córdoba and Santa Fe. Before that, it had measured for Sergio Massa and other candidates on both sides of the divide.

Between February 10 and 21, that is, before and after the crypto scandal , the consulting firm conducted a national survey of 2,200 cases, with a cut of 800 interviews in the Province .

Before entering the electoral field, he publishes other interesting data to understand the provincial context . Some examples:

1) Javier Milei's national management has a 47.1% approval rating and a 50.5% disapproval rating among the Buenos Aires residents surveyed.

2) The provincial administration of Axel Kicillof, meanwhile, combines 38.1% support and 57.3% rejection.

3) The image of La Libertad Avanza as a party is 34.1% positive and 47.2% negative.

4) Union for the Homeland, for its part, has 29.9% in favor and 50.9% against.

5) The leader with the best differential in the Province is the deputy Leandro Santoro, from UP, with + 30.5% and - 30.5%.

6) The worst is Mauricio Macri, with + 16.7% and - 57.1%.

The electoral section, always in view of the Buenos Aires legislative elections , begins with a general question: whether people would vote for a candidate for or against Milei.

The balance is relatively good for the Government, because it has 43.3% who would choose a candidate of its kind and 48.6% who would lean towards an opposition candidate. Not bad for the province of Buenos Aires. With a warning: in January, it had a balance in its favour: +46.6% and -45.1%.

Then comes the best number for the Casa Rosada. And it is in the fight for space. There, it leads with 35.1%, four points more than Unión por la Patria/Kirchnerismo. But last month La Libertad Avanza was also doing better: the difference with the K was double, eight points, 38.7% to 30.7%.

As for the dispute over candidates, there are different K and libertarian variants on offer. In the case of Unión por la Patria, the best is Cristina , but with 24.7% , less than one point above José Luis Espert (LLA) , who reaches 23.9% .

Next comes another ultra K, Juan Grabois , with an interesting 13.9%. He is followed by Karina Milei (LLA) and Diego Santilli (PRO) , both with 8.1% .

A left-wing candidate 4.4%.

Daniel Parisini (Gordo Dan) / LLA 2.5%.

Pablo Domenichini / UCR 0.6%.

Miguel Fernandez / UCR 0.8%.

I will not vote / Does not answer 6.5%.

Compared to January, there were two significant changes: Cristina had a clearer lead over Espert (29.4% to 24%) and Karina Milei was ahead of Grabois (11.1% to 9%).