The Basque Country looks askance at Madrid and Catalonia

The PNV celebrated Alderdi Eguna (Basque Party Day) yesterday with one eye on Madrid and faithful to the maxim launched by its leader, Aitor Esteban, this summer: "day by day" and "game by game." The Basque Nationalist party, which celebrated its 130th anniversary, is trying to squeeze the most out of the legislative period to advance what it calls the "Basque agenda," although the possibility that the mandate could end prematurely is gaining ground on its horizon. In this regard, the PNV are also looking to Junts, both for its position regarding the legislative period and for the concern raised by the balance of power that appears to be opening up in Catalonia.

Lehendakari Imanol Pradales explained his party's perspective on the near future in the Basque Parliament. "Very difficult times may come for the Basque Country. A dark time in which our self-government, identity, and institutions will be questioned." The Basque leader was referring to the possible short-term emergence of a PP-Vox government, a scenario increasingly discussed in Basque politics.

The strength of AC, reflected in the La Vanguardia survey, has not gone unnoticed in the Basque Country.

The PNV is calling for progress on self-government and for accelerating the creation of a new statutory agreement, although it is far from clear that this will happen in time. Meanwhile, it is clinging to the trickle of achievements it has been able to secure in recent weeks: the increase in the power grid that supplies Basque industry, the agreements reached on immigration, and the recent pact to transfer passive employment policies.

EH Bildu, for its part, is pressuring the PNV to reach an agreement on the new framework for self-government and other strategic issues in order to "shield" the Basque Country from the "increasingly real threat of the far right." The Basque nationalist party is also working on the hypothesis of an abrupt change in Madrid that would require a substantial shift. From the possibilism of recent years to confrontation as a strategy to mobilize its electorate,

The Basque Country is also eying Catalonia. Not only because Junts could cause the legislature to stall. The survey published by La Vanguardia on the Catalan political landscape has not gone unnoticed in Euskadi.

In Junts, a party that has reestablished relations with the PNV (Basque Nationalist Party), and ERC, a coalition partner with Bildu, they are already feeling the pull of the Catalan Alliance. The PP could be overtaken by Vox, the party that appears to have the most votes among young people. And this raises a question: given Vox's limited potential in the Basque Country, will an anti-immigration party emerge within the Basque nationalist and independence movement?

At first glance, it seems that the Basque Country is not yet on that map. Considering the scale of the migration phenomenon, the main rallying point for AC and Vox, there are still substantial contextual differences. The percentage of foreign-born citizens in the Basque Autonomous Community is around 14% (those with foreign nationality are fewer, at 10%), while in Catalonia it rises to 25% (18% with foreign nationality). Furthermore, according to a comprehensive survey by EiTB Focus, the leading party among young people is Bildu, followed by the PNV. However, the Catalan case, and others in the European context, demonstrate that changes can be precipitated.

In the absence of significant movements, the embryo of a Basque nationalist party has emerged in recent months that challenges "a neoliberal migration model that serves the interests of capital." Called Ezker Nazionala, it defines itself as "anti-globalist left" and identifies with Sahra Wagenknecht's party (formerly Die Linke) in Germany. In any case, it is still a tiny party and doesn't appear likely to make any headway in the next electoral cycle.

The short-term interest lies in seeing how the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and Bildu respond to a debate that is raging in the streets. The Basque Nationalist Party (Jeltzales) have made their move, as we explained in these pages a few days ago. They want to occupy a "focused" space, "shunning both populist and do-gooder rhetoric." Bildu is also moving, focusing its discourse on the demand for "sovereignty to develop appropriate reception policies." Basque politics is looking sideways at Madrid and Barcelona. And it sees a disturbing horizon.