Climate change puts thousands of tree species at risk: experts

Climate change is putting thousands of tree species around the world at risk, although there is still room for urgent action, according to a study co-led by the Botanical Institute of Barcelona (Spain), affiliated with the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC).

The global research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) journal in the United States and was conducted jointly by the Botanical Institute of Barcelona, ​​Wageningen University (Netherlands), and Aarhus University (Denmark).

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According to their conclusions, 70% of the more than 32,000 tree species analyzed worldwide face severe climate threats, even under moderate warming scenarios.

The study underscores the urgent need to implement conservation strategies aimed at minimizing human impact, especially in regions with low climate stress that could serve as key refuges for forest biodiversity.

Trees: pillars of life on Earth

The research is based on the recognition that trees are fundamental to life on the planet: they sustain ecosystems, store carbon, purify water, contribute to human well-being, and offer multiple benefits for biodiversity.

Using climate models, researchers analyzed the future exposure of more than 32,000 tree species and identified areas where they will face unprecedented conditions. The results indicate that many species will have to adapt to climate scenarios radically different from the current ones, especially if the most extreme patterns of greenhouse gas emissions materialize.

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Josep Serra-Díaz, a CSIC researcher at the Botanical Institute of Barcelona and co-author of the study, emphasizes the urgency of protecting forest ecosystems before the impacts become irreversible. “This study offers a global view that allows us to identify where to act for conservation and where to focus mitigation and adaptation strategies, taking advantage of small-scale opportunities to maintain the diversity of our forests,” he notes.

For her part, Coline Boonman, a researcher at Wageningen and Aarhus Universities, points out that "almost 70% of tree species will experience significant climate change in parts of their range by the end of the century." In some cases, she warns, More than half of the habitat of certain species could be affected under an extreme 4°C warming scenario.

A global map of critical areas

The study has identified and mapped so-called "hotspots": regions where local tree diversity—that is, the number of species present in a given area—will be particularly exposed to climate change.

Among these regions are Eurasia, northwestern North America, northern Chile, and the Amazon Delta, where climate change is expected to be so drastic that many species may not survive without intervention.

This mapping represents a valuable tool for planning conservation policies and strengthening the resilience of forest ecosystems. Due to their long lifespans and inability to move, trees are particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in temperature and precipitation.

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It's worth noting that the study focused exclusively on climate exposure, without considering additional threats such as deforestation, habitat fragmentation, or the presence of invasive species, factors that, when combined, could further increase the risk level.

Despite the worrisome outlook, the study also offers a hopeful message: researchers have identified potential climate refugia, areas where conditions will remain relatively stable over time. These places could become natural sanctuaries for tree species if properly managed and protected.

These areas represent a key opportunity for designing long-term conservation strategies. Among the actions recommended by the study are monitoring high-risk species, actively protecting climate refuges from human activity, and evaluating measures such as assisted migration to ensure the survival of certain species.

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