"Faced with Trump, Europe had the choice between trade war and dishonor. It chose dishonor, but..."

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The meeting between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump at the Turnberry golf course in Scotland on July 27 was catastrophic. One wonders how it was possible for the President of the European Commission to agree to participate in such a sordid performance on our behalf. Beyond the shock of this communications disaster, does this episode at least bring something positive to Europeans in their relations with Trump's United States? That seems unlikely: this agreement is likely to have been a fool's bargain for Europe, both on Ukraine and economically.

The Ukrainian argument

To justify this capitulation in the open, the European Commission and the governments that approved this deal emphasize first of all the need to avoid a transatlantic trade war due to the war against Ukraine: everything must be done to prevent a brutal American disengagement in the field of European security.

The argument has weight, indeed, as it is clear that, in key areas such as anti-aircraft defense or intelligence, the American contribution to military support for Ukraine remains irreplaceable in the short term. A total withdrawal would risk having dramatic consequences on the ground, as was already seen in the Kursk pocket last March when Donald Trump cut off the tap of American intelligence .

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But by showing itself so weak in an area (international trade) where the Union, a priori, possesses both decisive economic weight and powerful instruments (this is an exclusive competence of the EU), the latter has probably reinforced the idea, already very present in Donald Trump, that he has no real need to take into account the positions of the European Union on any issue whatsoever, including the Ukrainian issue. This is something the American president did not fail to immediately make clear to Ursula von der Leyen by not associating her with the phone call made on August 6 to certain European leaders as his ultimatum to Vladimir Putin approached its expiry date.

This deal with the EU, obtained with an ease that probably disconcerted Donald Trump himself, has certainly convinced him that he can agree on whatever he wants with the Russian president – the recognition of Crimea and the conquered territories as Russian, the non-entry of Ukraine into NATO or even the EU, its possible demilitarization… – without risking a vigorous reaction from a Union, quite incapable of resisting him, which will in any case end up giving in once again.

In recent weeks, Donald Trump has certainly raised his voice towards the Kremlin for fear of losing face on this issue, but there is no doubt that, fundamentally, his position has not changed: he is still ready to give in to the essential Russian demands as long as Vladimir Putin is willing to agree to a ceasefire that allows him to appear as the one who made peace in Ukraine. This is confirmed by the summit to be held in Alaska on August 15 .

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