Mild weather, harvests... Why is the price of coffee falling again?

Coffee is the food commodity whose price has skyrocketed the most in recent years. A pound of Arabica—the most aromatic, expensive, and widely consumed variety—reached more than €3.50 per pound this winter, almost four times higher than in 2019.

Why such a surge? Several reasons: drought and excessive heat in Brazil, the world's leading producer, but also in Vietnam. Rising global demand, particularly in Asia, with the development of coffee chains like Starbucks.

But the trend is reversing. After February's record highs, the market has started to decline again: Arabica prices have fallen by 17% in three months. Robusta prices, by 30%. Why? First, because the weather has improved, allowing for better production, not only in Brazil, but also in Africa.

Second, because investment funds withdrew from the coffee market when prices began to fall, artificially injecting more volume into the trade.

And what about Donald Trump? Indirectly, we could also benefit from the taxes imposed by Donald Trump on Brazilian products (up to 50%). Brazilian coffee accounts for a third of American consumption. As a result, the United States will buy less Brazilian coffee, freeing up volumes for the rest of the world, including France.

Will we see the color of it? Not right away. Generally, it takes 5 to 6 months for the drop in global prices to be reflected on the shelves. And even then, the raw material is only part of the final price:

At the counter, a cup of coffee could drop by a few cents over the year. A 250g pack could lose up to 50 cents (for a price ranging between 3 and 6 euros).