Having been soundly defeated for the LR presidency, Laurent Wauquiez completes a campaign that resembled a Stations of the Cross

An election that should have seemed like a walk in the park turned into a nightmare. The president of the Republicans deputies was soundly defeated by Bruno Retailleau this Sunday, May 18, in the internal competition to take the leadership of the right-wing party, garnering only 25.7% of the vote. A look back at a campaign that crushed Laurent Wauquiez.

Yet everything had started auspiciously for him last September, with no rivals. At that point, the right officially had no leader since Éric Ciotti, then president of the LR party, joined Marine Le Pen in the surprise legislative elections in June.

With less than 10% of the deputies in the chamber , few are willing to run for the leadership of a demonetized party. But for the man who became president of the elected representatives in the Assembly, winning over the party he led from 2017 to 2019 is a way to regain control of the movement's finances and set a date for the 2027 presidential election.

The appointment of Michel Barnier to Matignon and Bruno Retailleau, previously unknown to the general public, to the Interior Ministry , however, changes the situation. Back in government after 12 years away from the ministerial corridors, the right is relishing .

"We risk having only the ministry of speech in the absence of a parliamentary majority, so we must quickly and strongly influence public opinion and take advantage of this to prepare for the presidential election," summarizes a ministerial advisor.

Message received 5 out of 5 by the new tenant of the Interior who resumes the furrow that he had traced when he was president of the LR senators by making the fight against illegal immigration his hobbyhorse .

In an executive with few political heavyweights, the graft took hold very quickly and allowed him to explode in the polls. Enough to push his entourage to press him to enter the race for the presidency of the right , to the great displeasure of Laurent Wauquiez who saw the danger coming.

"There was an agreement between us: it was up to you to embody the right in government, and up to me to rebuild our political family. If you break this agreement, you will bear the responsibility of starting a war of leaders," the president of the LR deputies told him during a private dinner .

Translation from a close friend of Bruno Retailleau the next day: "Laurent Wauquiez wanted Bercy, he didn't get it. Now he realizes that he risks not even becoming president of the LR. The guy thinks he'll get out of it by applying pressure. But too many people want Bruno to go," starting with Senate President Gérard Larcher.

Barely a week after this feast in Beauvau, the former senator of Vendée officially enters the race . He promises that the Minister of the Interior will not "play the game of soundbites" and "will not speak out against any of his competitors."

"We always say that when we start a campaign. But, very quickly, we understand that he's going to stick to it and that complicates things because it means we're fighting in the void," regrets a supporter of Laurent Wauquiez.

"The problem is that you have such media exposure when you're at the Interior Ministry that it's very, very hard to score points, and even harder when your rival ignores you," sighs one of his close associates.

Bruno Retailleau continues to multiply his presence on the field , driven by a series of news stories and almost daily speeches. As for the polls for the 2027 presidential election , which should be taken with caution almost two years before the election, the Vendéen is not wrapping up the match but is well ahead of Laurent Wauquiez .

Enough to push the former president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region to adopt a "steamroller strategy" by playing the field card with at least two meetings per day, sometimes even three. And there's no question of forgetting to take the time to have a drink with the activists.

"It's not complicated, we're the challengers, so we're throwing all our energy into the race," says a LR MP, who is working to "make cards" of members who will vote in the competition.

The stakes are high: their number is around 40,000, a far cry from the 139,000 voters in the internal primary to choose their presidential candidate in 2021.

"Sometimes it turns into harassment. In March, we were practically blocking the exits to make sure no one left the venue without taking their card," admits a supporter of Laurent Wauquiez.

With some success: the number of activists tripled in a few months with almost 20% of the forces coming directly from the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, long led by the president of the LR deputies.

"Will that be enough for us when we're so far behind at the moment? I don't know," admitted one of his lieutenants at the end of April, who admitted to being "in low spirits."

But Laurent Wauquiez is playing the positive attitude card and says he is "sure of winning," as he has repeatedly stated, with arguments up his sleeve that he considers unstoppable.

The elected representative from Haute-Loire has little choice against Bruno Retailleau, who can boast of being supported by all the leading figures on the right , without his campaign gaining any real media traction.

But meeting dozens of LR activists every day allows him to refine his angles of attack. In front of the activists, he constantly says that Bruno Retailleau would not have the time to be both a good Minister of the Interior and a full-time president of the LR . And too bad if Nicolas Sarkozy succeeded so well in 2005 that he became President of the Republic in 2007.

Another strategy: attack the Minister of the Interior, believing him to be tied hand and foot in a Macronist government, prevented from having any real room for action .

"I saw people who wanted to vote for Retailleau, and once we explained to them that we couldn't do anything because we were still led by François Bayrou, who supported François Hollande in 2012, it made them think," said a local elected official who supports Laurent Wauquiez.

"The right will be diluted by Macronism," Laurent Wauquiez repeatedly accuses, thus raising doubts about Bruno Retailleau's possible withdrawal in 2027 to leave the right-wing seat open to Édouard Philippe.

Enough to raise the temperature a little between the two men who have been at loggerheads on several occasions through the media . But even though Bruno Retailleau's results are still pending and the snubs in his standoff with Algeria are piling up , the maneuver does not seem to have turned the tide.

Laurent Wauquiez therefore decided to move on to the next level by putting on the table a measure that he had never discussed with his lieutenants and which aroused scepticism even within the National Rally : the sending of "dangerous foreigners" under obligation to leave the territory (OQTF) to Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon .

The message is clear: to show LR activists that Bruno Retailleau symbolizes "France's inability to resolve this problem," accusing him of "passively accepting that foreign criminals are released onto our streets," as he explains.

"I'm not a big fan of the idea, but at least it got people talking," a right-wing MP says reluctantly.

To see: "I think that a measure like that pleases our activists, but can we win a presidential election by saying that? I don't think so, and our activists want us to win in the end," remarks an elected official, relatively neutral in the race.

In Bruno Retailleau's camp, it was considered that the competition had been definitively won at that point. "When you come out with something like that, it's because you've reached the end of what you can say and you're starting to get desperate. And that scares away even the activists who like you."

While some in Laurent Wauquiez's entourage predicted other "proposals to make people think," the president of the LR deputies ultimately did not put any more money into the machine.

Just one week before the opening of the voting period for activists, he called for a "sanitary cordon" around La France Insoumise during a debate on BFMTV with Manuel Bompard, the movement's coordinator. As for his outstretched hand to Sarah Knafo, the only Reconquête MEP, to launch "a major rally of the right," it fell flat.

"The end of the campaign seemed a bit sad to me; we were running on empty, without much new to put on the table. Bruno Retailleau could afford it, but we couldn't," admits one LR MP.

With a symbolic twist: the last major campaign rally was held in his opponent's camp in Boulogne-Billancourt last weekend. The question now arises as to what's next for Laurent Wauquiez. Will he accept the likely outstretched hand of Bruno Retailleau, who could offer him a position as party vice-president?

"We need to give him time to process what happened. It's a big blow to the head he's taken," admits one LR senator. Some, however, are worried about a clear break with the movement.

"Is he really going to give up on his dream of running for office in 2027? Is he telling himself he has a chance with us by pushing for an internal primary , or is he realizing he has to leave?" asks one MP.

"He would have to have a triple stroke to give up the presidential race," observes a Paris LR councilor who says he is "worried."

Among the LR deputies, some have given him the nickname "Human Bomb," after a hostage-taker in a kindergarten in 1993. At the risk of blowing up the right by opening his own shop?