Asteroid, the risk of collision has dropped to zero

The risk of a collision with the asteroid 2024 YR4 , which threatened to hit the Earth on December 22, 2032 , is practically zero : thanks to the latest findings , NASA has lowered the probability of impact from 0.28% to 0.005% (1 in 20,000), while the European Space Agency has reduced it from 0.16% to 0.002% . "This is a probability of zero impact ," observes on the website Space.com astronomer Richard Binzel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, inventor of the Torino scale that has been used for over twenty years to measure the risk of collision with near-Earth objects such as asteroids and comets. "Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now been reassigned to the zero level of the Turin Scale , the level that indicates ' no risk ' because further tracing of its orbital path has reduced its chance of intersecting the Earth below the threshold of 1 in 1,000," continues Binzel. " One in a thousand is the threshold established for the downgrading to the zero level of any object smaller than 100 meters, and 2024 YR4 has an estimated size of 50 meters." Although 2024 YR4 no longer represents a threat to our planet, it will still be an object of great scientific interest to study carefully when it passes close to the Earth in 2028 and again in 2032. While US astronomer Richard Binzel of MIT already speaks of zero risk, Luca Conversi, head of the ESA's Near-Earth Object Coordination Center, is a little more cautious . "It is still a bit early to talk about zero risk: today - the expert specifies - we are at a probability of impact of 1 in 60,000 , or 0.0017%", rounded on the ESA website to 0.002%. "Now the asteroid is in fifth position on our risk list, but the first four are not currently visible, so we will certainly continue to observe it until the risk goes to zero or the asteroid is no longer visible". closer to the Moon

Meanwhile, the latest estimates have moved the nominal orbit of 2024 YR4 even closer to the Moon , so much so that now "the probability of impact on our natural satellite has slightly increased from 1.2% to 1.8% ", concludes Conversi.