At the Ukraine Summit, Europe looks to Alaska and plans its countermoves.

Forced to sit on the sidelines, Europe is awaiting the outcome of today's summit, sharpening its weapons. Few believe it will succeed. Although Brussels sources speak of cautious optimism, Giorgia Meloni 's blunt statement in the call with Trump two days ago ( "We're calling Putin's bluff, as he has so far failed to take any significant steps forward" ) more accurately reflects the Europeans' state of mind. Therefore, they have full confidence in Trump, a sense of optimism, but are also prepared to launch the toughest sanctions package ever in September, to strictly monitor the functioning of the functions provided thus far to determine whether they have been circumvented, and to conduct legal investigations to determine how to seize all the frozen Russian assets, worth more than €200 billion, and not just, as is currently the case, the interest they generate.

But the suspense for the EU countries is twofold. They're waiting to see if there's actually a glimmer of hope for a plausible negotiation—that is, whether Putin is willing to at least consider a ceasefire or a moratorium on bombing —but they're also waiting to see what Donald Trump will do when the time comes. Had it been any other president, last Wednesday's cross-calls would have offered complete reassurance. Perhaps the most satisfied of all was Giorgia, who has always hammered home the need to avoid clashes, friction, and divisions between the two sides of the Atlantic. Wednesday's Trump, almost aligned with the red line drawn by the EU countries and Ukraine , seems to agree with the Italian prime minister. Now, the Donald is almost blessing Macron's mission of the Willing , thus reviving the option of a peacekeeping mission—certainly not under NATO flags— in Ukraine, when the guns fall silent. In the new framework, with the approval of the White House, Italy would probably also join that mission, which has so far been rejected without appeal.

But Trump is Trump. He's unpredictable and volatile. If he has a clear target in mind, few know it, and those few don't include European leaders. The reality is that no one, not even after Wednesday's assurances, knows what will emerge from today's meeting, which nevertheless represents a diplomatic success for the Russian president. Treated until yesterday as a pariah hunted by an international arrest warrant, he is now formally returning to the center of the international scene with full honors. This is already a bitter pill to swallow for Europe.

The Italian prime minister is keeping her fingers crossed. If Trump is consistent with the positions he took two days ago, it will be a success for her on many levels: her strategy of closeness to Washington will be rewarded, her role as a point of balance between Washington and Brussels confirmed, with the blessing of Zelensky , who is pushing for peace talks in Rome. She will have managed to maintain a privileged relationship with the United States while maintaining total support for her other friend, Ukraine. But two days, when Donald Trump's moods and moves are at stake, could feel like an eternity.

FROM

David Romoli