Confindustria: Rtt index drops in May but quarterly average remains positive
A drop in May, after the leap in April. The RTT index, built on the basis of the seasonally adjusted and deflated turnover data of the sample of TeamSystem client companies, showed a significant downward correction, with declines in all sectors, larger in services and industry, less in construction.
Overall, despite this decline, the RTT indicates a positive acquired change in turnover in the second quarter of 2025. The three-month moving average slows down, but remains on the rise: in May +1.1 percent.
This is the picture that emerges from the data released by the Confindustria Research Centre , which also published the rapid survey on the activity of large associated industrial companies: there is substantial stability in expectations compared to the May survey, on average in the second quarter expectations are slightly more cautious compared to the first quarter of the year.
Returning to the RTT index and analyzing the individual sectors, the reduction in May in industry, -3.2%, interrupts the phase of two positive months. In services, the decline is greater in May, after a strong increase in April. The variation acquired in the second quarter of 2025 remains positive, especially in industry, but also in services. In construction, the RTT index shows a more moderate decline, -2.7, as was the increase in April. The variation acquired in the second quarter is positive, -0.3%: it is the fourth consecutive increase.
The RTT index also takes into account the macro areas and the size of the companies. In May, a decline was recorded in all geographical areas, stronger in the North-West, limited in the South. The variation acquired for the second quarter is negative only in the North-West, while it is positive in the other areas of the country.
Turnover down in May for all sizes of companies: deeper for large ones, strong also for small ones. The variation acquired for the second quarter is however positive for all size classes, thanks to the strong increases in April.
As regards industrial production, the share of respondents who believe that production will remain stable is almost unchanged compared to May (67.6%), while those who expect an increase are slightly decreasing (21.4%) and the share of those who expect a contraction is slightly increasing (11.0%). In the second quarter, expectations are more cautious: in the number of respondents who believe that production will remain constant is increasing, 62.4%, offset by a decrease in optimists, 23.8%, while the share of companies expecting a decrease is almost unchanged (13.8%).
Demand and supply are the main strengths supporting production: the balance increases significantly compared to May, rising to 6.1% from the previous 4.5 percent. Expectations on labor availability in the coming months are once again favorable (1.1% from -1.4%). The balance relating to production costs, already negative in May, is decreasing, -6.2% from -5.6 percent. Opinions regarding financial conditions remain in negative territory in June, -0.7% from -0.3 percent.
As regards the availability of materials, the balance of responses in June, slightly negative with -0.1%, shows an improvement compared to the value recorded in May, -0.6 percent. The assessment of the availability of plants records a clear worsening in June, going from 3.3% to -0.2 percent.
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