SYRIA – Ultimatum to the SDF: surrender or chaos?

The Syrian landscape remains an inextricable tangle of divergent interests and regional ambitions, with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) caught between the anvil of international pressure and the hard place of a regime in Damascus that inspires little, if any, trust. Recent rumors of a 30-day ultimatum imposed by the United States and Turkey on the SDF to integrate its institutions and troops under the central government have added fuel to an already highly volatile situation.

According to Middle East Eye , the agreement signed in March between SDF commander Mazlum Abdi and transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa (leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, who took control of Damascus in late 2024 and now presents himself as "president") would provide for precisely this integration. The timing is crucial, suggesting a desire to accelerate a process the SDF has always viewed with extreme caution.

The SDF's Reaction: Between Denials and Real Concern

Despite the rumors, the SDF promptly denied the existence of such an ultimatum , calling it a "baseless attempt at disinformation" and denying an urgent renegotiation of their status, as reported by Shafaq News. However, this denial sounds more like a delaying tactic than a true denial of the pressure underway. In the undergrowth of off-the-record communications and diplomatic circles, the urgency seems palpable, and the denial could be used to buy time or conceal its weakness. The stakes are extremely high for the SDF, whose survival as an autonomous entity depends on its ability to negotiate astutely.

Political context and regional scenarios: A trust never born Stalled Negotiations and the Question of Kurdish Autonomy

Tom Barrack, the US special envoy to Syria, confirmed that discussions between Damascus and Kurdish forces are continuing, but crucial issues remain unresolved. The thorniest issue, as highlighted by ABC News and AP News, is the extent of integration and autonomy of Kurdish units within the Syrian army . The Kurdish authorities insist on maintaining an autonomous military structure—a true "military bloc" within the Syrian Ministry of Defense—a proposal that Damascus categorically rejects, even threatening the use of force, as reported on Wikipedia.

This stalemate is emblematic of the deep mistrust that pervades every interaction with the government in Damascus, now led by al-Sharaa. Promises of "integration" ring hollow when considering Syria's recent history and the regime's repressive nature.

Syrian minorities: enemies or allies? Fear of retaliation.

Sectarian violence in areas like Sweida and the coastal regions, which have targeted minorities such as Alawites and Druze, has profoundly damaged the already fragile trust in the new Islamist regime of al-Sharaa (as documented by The Guardian and AP News). These events , including the killings at As-Suwayda National Hospital, fuel legitimate fears among Kurds of retaliation if they were to dismantle their forces and abandon self-defense. This is not just a question of military autonomy, but of cultural and physical survival in a country where the repression of minorities is a historical constant. Promises of inclusion from a regime that has shown its most ruthless side over the years are met with profound skepticism.

The game of great powers US Withdrawal and Space for Ankara

The announced withdrawal of US troops from northeastern Syria, which began in April 2025, has inevitably intensified Turkish pressure on the SDF . Ankara sees this move as an opportunity to consolidate its influence and has as its primary objective the unification of the Syrian authorities to prevent the creation of an autonomous Kurdish zone, which it claims could legitimize the PKK (as reported by Facebook, The Washington Post, and AP News). For Turkey, Kurdish autonomy in Syria is a geopolitical nightmare, and the current situation in Damascus could be seen as an opportunity to advance its own interests.

“Tweetale” Hypothesis: The Pretext for the Incursion?

A worrying theory is circulating on social media, particularly on X (formerly Twitter), and among activists close to sources like “Levant_24,” that the urgency of the US-Turkey ultimatum could be a strategy to create a pretext for possible military incursions against the Kurds , favoring the expansion of Turkish influence in the region. This is indicative of a climate of deep mistrust and suggests that behind the diplomatic facade lie cynical calculations aimed at further destabilizing the region and redrawing the maps of influence.

Another persistent rumor, relaunched by some Telegram channels and forums specializing in Syria, suggests that the ultimatum is less a genuine attempt at integration than a joint maneuver to weaken the SDF from within . There is talk of a "fifth column" within the Kurdish forces themselves, which could be used to justify external intervention or to facilitate the advance of pro-Damascus or pro-Turkish militias. Although speculative, these rumors contribute to a climate of paranoid distrust towards any diplomatic move involving the Damascus regime.

Risks for the SDF: An Uncertain and Dangerous Future

The picture is bleak for the SDF, which faces extreme choices:

• Dismantling without guarantees: The agreement, in its alleged form, would not cover their women's bloc (YPJ), which Damascus categorically refuses to incorporate. Tens of thousands of fighters, many of whom played a crucial role in the fight against ISIS, risk losing weapons, positions, and potentially their very safety (as highlighted by Türkiye Today and Report İnformasiya Agentliyi). Integration without guarantees for the YPJ would be not only a military defeat, but also an ideological and social one for the SDF.
• Latent sectarian violence: The recent history of the al-Sharaa regime is marred by serious incidents of violence against minorities . The experience of Alawites and Druze, who suffered reprisals after changes in power, fuels Kurdish mistrust. Integration into a Syrian army under the control of such a regime would be a leap into the unknown, with no guarantees of protection for the Kurdish population and other minorities in northeastern Syria.
• Open Scenarios: The "Great Game" continues: If mediation fails, the consequences will be unpredictable. Turkey might feel justified in intervening militarily, or other regional players like Russia and Iran could regain control over strategic areas, once again redrawing spheres of influence and rendering the SDF's fight for self-determination futile.

What will happen in the next 30 days? A diplomatic offensive with a dark undercurrent.

The next month will be decisive, and the scenarios that emerge are complex:

• Transatlantic diplomatic offensive: The United States will intensify pressure on the SDF with a mix of military and diplomatic incentives, such as technological support and access to Syrian state facilities. However, this "offensive" may conceal an intention to push the SDF toward a rapid decision, which, in the long run, could prove counterproductive to their autonomy.
• Turkish mediation "with guarantees": Ankara will demand written guarantees regarding the control of Kurdish forces and, above all, their alleged ties to the PKK. For Turkey, this request is actually a pretext to dismantle any form of Kurdish autonomy on the border.
• Escalation hypothesis: A Kurdish retreat or a clear rejection of the ultimatum could provide the “perfect excuse” for a large-scale Turkish intervention or for an advance by pro-government militias from 'Damascus' , who are eager to regain full control of the territory.

In short: a synthesis of mistrust and concern

The Syrian context remains highly fluid and dangerous. The SDF faces an existential choice: maintain a "defensive parachute" (until the alleged ultimatum expires) and risk escalation, or seek an agreement with an untrustworthy regime in Damascus that can guarantee autonomy and protection from sectarian attacks. The next month will be crucial. Scenarios of a "controlled peace" could emerge, which, however, conceal the threat of a progressive erosion of Kurdish autonomy, but also the concrete possibility that superficial diplomatic agreements could reignite large-scale military conflicts, with the Damascus regime poised to capitalize on any SDF weakness.