The good news is that Europe is close to meeting its 2030 climate goals. The bad news? It's all just on paper.
Who would have thought it? In less than five years, Europe will have to demonstrate that it has fulfilled its commitment to halve its greenhouse gas emissions , as set out in the Green Deal 's Fit for 55 regulatory package (a 55% reduction compared to 1990 levels). And while the environmental issue seems to be plagued by bad news, perplexity, institutional setbacks, doubts about the New Green Deal , and so on, it turns out that according to estimates presented by Teresa Ribera , Wopke Hoekstra, and Dan Jørgensen (Commissioners for Ecological Transition, Climate, and Energy, respectively), if all goes as planned, the Union will manage to reduce its emissions by 54% by the end of the decade , just one percentage point less than it set out to achieve.
From theory to practice
This is excellent news. However, it currently has to do with mere professions of commitment. Therefore, the EU will achieve its goals provided that member states' national energy and climate plans are translated from paper into practice. This will focus in particular on the use of renewables, with the goal of producing at least 42.5% of Europe's energy in this way and reducing energy consumption by 11.7% by 2030, also through efficiency improvements. This is no easy task, but it's not impossible either.
Moreover, data has shown that reducing emissions and energy demand are not antithetical to economic growth. Indeed, while greenhouse gases have decreased by 37% since 1990, GDP has increased by 68%. And over the last decade, from 2014 to 2023, final energy consumption fell by 2% while GDP increased by 38%. The Commission's analysis indicates that by the end of the decade, Europe will be using 41% of its energy from renewable sources. Italy in particular has committed to installing at least 70 additional GW (up to 80 GW) between 2021 and 2030, primarily from solar and secondarily from wind. This means maintaining an average of approximately 7 GW per year.
Is it possible? Again, it depends. Historical data shows that this occurred in 2024, but not in the previous three years, which is why the average for the next five years is approximately 10 GW per year. However, while the transition to renewables appears to be progressing fairly quickly, the same cannot be said for the other aspect of the issue: reducing final energy consumption. For example, in Belgium, total consumption will be 794 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), approximately 30 Mtoe more than the target of 763 Mtoe.
According to an analysis of national plans, Europe's soil carbon absorption target will also be missed. The target was set at 310 MtCO2 (million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent), but will be missed by between 45 and 60 MtCO2 eq. However, there are also virtuous models that would be worth emulating. For example , virtuous behavior could be incentivized while penalizing polluting behavior, as is happening in Denmark where, thanks to a recent law, profits generated by cattle, pig, and sheep farming go to finance the transition in the agricultural sector: for every ton of CO2 exceeding the sector's reduction targets, producers will pay approximately 40 euros starting in 2030, and 100 euros starting in 2035.
At the same time, Danish farmers will be paid around 100 euros for each tonne of nitrogen, the main component of fertilizers and a source of soil and water pollution, not emitted.
What's happening in the rest of the world? Of particular note is China's leap forward , with installed renewable electricity generation capacity exceeding 370 GW in 2024, with solar accounting for the lion's share (almost 280 GW), but also wind (80 GW), hydroelectric (almost 15 GW), and biomass (almost 2 GW). This progress, combined with the contribution of nuclear power, has allowed China to outpace all of the country's new energy demand growth, while also reversing the age-old and dramatic trend of rising harmful emissions , which fell by just over 1% from March 2024 to March 2025.
Luce
