Maritime transport, rush for biofuels: too much demand, too little supply

The race for zero-emission shipping risks getting stuck on a crucial issue: the lack of biofuels . Compatible with existing ship engines and in line with the objectives of the IMO (International Maritime Organization) , biodiesel and bio-LNG (bio-LNG) are currently the most viable options for reducing emissions. But, according to Rystad Energy, supply is not keeping pace with demand.

In a no-constraints scenario, global marine biodiesel demand could exceed 140 million tons of fuel oil equivalent by 2028. But global production capacity will not exceed 120 million, and drops to just 40 million if sustainability criteria are applied, favoring advanced biofuels. The situation of bio-LNG is even more critical: compared to a forecasted maritime demand of 16 million tons, over 94% of global biomethane is already destined for other uses, leaving a negligible residual share.

“This is a supply crisis that the industry cannot ignore,” warns Junlin Yu, senior analyst at Rystad Energy . The risk? Betting on a transition solution that, without long-term planning and supply agreements, could prove unreliable.

Meanwhile, regulatory pressure is increasing . From 2025, the IMO standard on fuel greenhouse gas intensity imposes more stringent targets. In this context, biofuels are cheaper than conventional low-sulfur fuels (Vlsfo), especially if they fall within the GHG thresholds envisaged, thus benefiting from incentives.

The real advantage? It lies in speed . Blends of 30% or 50% can help meet short-term targets, but only a transition to 100% low-emission biofuels guarantees structural savings and strategic alignment with decarbonization . Bio-LNG, in particular, is shaping up to be a cheaper option than biodiesel, especially if supported by subsidies.

But time is running out. Ammonia and methanol remain promising but expensive alternatives , hampered by infrastructural and commercial obstacles. In the meantime, competition for access to biofuels will only get fiercer. And those who don’t act now risk being left behind.