Political polls show Meloni holding steady while Schlein retreats and Conte surges forward.

Political polls show that Fratelli d'Italia remains firmly the leading party: the force led by Giorgia Meloni loses a few decimal points ( -0.2% ), going to 29.2% .

There is discontent within Elly Schlein 's Democratic Party , which, with a -0.7% drop to 21.7% . Good news for Giuseppe Conte 's Five Star Movement , which gains 1 point and goes to 13.5% .

Who's rising and who's falling in the political polls

Below are the data from the Supermedia Youtrend/Agi election survey. The survey shows the average trend in political party approval ratings as of July 31, 2025. The data is compared with those collected in the previous two weeks:

• Brothers of Italy – 29.2% (-0.2%);
• Democratic Party – 21.7% (-0.7%);
• Five Star Movement – 13.5% (+1%);
• Forza Italia – 8.7% (-0.3%);
• League 8.4% – (+0.1%);
• Green and Left Alliance – 6.3% (-0.6%);
• Action 3% – (-0.5%);
• Italia Viva – 2.3% (+0.2%);
• +Europe – 2.1% (+0.2%);
• We Moderates (not detected by Tecnè ) – 1% (+0.7%).

Supermedia Youtrend has elaborated for Agi the voting intentions of Italian voters by obtaining the weighted average of a series of electoral polls: Ipsos (publication date 26 July), Swg (21 and 28 July) and Tecnè (18 and 25 July).

The detailed methodological note for each poll is available on the official website volontariopoliticoelettorali.it.

As of July 31, 2025, the date of publication of the Supermedia , the coalition situation is as follows:

• center-right – 47.3%;
• center-left – 30%;
• Five Star Movement – 13.5%;
• Third Pole – 5.3%;
• others – 3.9%.

Here you can check previous political polls .

The situation regarding the European elections of 8 and 9 June 2024:

• center-right – 46.4%;
• center-left – 32.1%;
• Five Star Movement – 9.8%;
• Third Pole – 7.1%;
• others – 4.7%.

At the political elections of September 25, 2022:

• center-right – 43.8%;
• center-left – 26.1%;
• Five Star Movement – 15.4%;
• Third Pole – 7.8%;
• others – 6.9%.

Who would win if we voted today?

The centre-right continues to hover just above the 47% mark: this week it received 47.3 %, while seven days ago it was at 47.4%.

The united center-left (but without the M5S) is worth 30% . Seven days earlier the figure was 31%.

The broad field (PD + M5S) is worth 35.2% , a step forward from last week's 34.9%.

All the opposition parties combined would be worth a hypothetical 48.8% . The previous week, it was 49%, and the week before that, 49.3%. In theory, this is enough to defeat the center-right coalition. In practice, this is purely fanciful: the opposition lacks a unifying force capable of reconciling all the opposition's core groups, who are divided on the hot topics of the moment: support for Ukraine, Russian gas, support for Israel, recognition of Palestine, US tariffs, immigration, justice reform, the Green Deal, European rearmament, and so on. Giorgia Meloni , in effect, has no rival today. The smallest parties have been excluded from the count.

Who would be left out of Parliament?

If we were to go back to the polls today, the Rosatellum would sweep away all the small parties that run alone. The current electoral law has a 3% threshold. They would be incapable of exceeding it:

• Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (2.3%);
• +Europe by Riccardo Magi (2.1%);
• We Moderates by Maurizio Lupi (1%).

Abstentionism and indecision

Abstentions , undecided voters , and those who would vote blank or invalid ballots in protest are the "non-voter party." The Ipsos poll published on July 24 shows that 42.5% of the electorate currently vote non-voters. A month earlier, the figure was slightly lower (41%). In summary, the actual voter turnout is now 57.5% .

Today, excluding the lack of voting, this is the real picture of the preferences of the Italian electorate:

• Non-vote – 42.5%;
• Brothers of Italy – 17.44%;
• Democratic Party – 12.91%;
• Five Star Movement – 8.07%;
• Forza Italia – 5.2%;
• League – 5.02%;
• Green and Left Alliance – 3.77%;
• Action – 1.79%;
• Italia Viva – 1.37%;
• +Europe – 1.25%;
• We Moderates – 0.6%.