Stable employment continues to increase, despite wars and tariffs
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Editorials
Istat data for May show that the unemployment rate has risen to 62.9 percent, an all-time record. It was feared that Italy's economic growth in the first quarter was linked to fears of a trade war, but the strong start to hiring also suggests a recovery in businesses
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The world is crossed by wars, from Ukraine to the Middle East , by trade wars ( Trump's duties and retaliation from other countries ), by energy risks (shock on the price of oil) and financial risks (repercussions on the government bond market). But the Italian labor market does not care: it continues to grow as before. In May, according to Istat data, there was an increase in employment of 80 thousand units , due to an increase in permanent employees (+67 thousand) and self-employed (+17 thousand) while fixed-term employees decreased slightly (-4 thousand). The trend is more eloquent on a trend basis: +408 thousand employed in one year, of which +388 thousand with permanent contracts, +175 thousand self-employed and -155 thousand with fixed-term contracts.
With 24.3 million people employed, the unemployment rate rose to 62.9 percent (an all-time high). Unemployment increased in May (now at 6.5 percent), but this is also a positive figure because it is the result of the decline in inactive people (down to 32.6 percent): it means that more people have started looking for a job. The labor market has never been so strong: for four years now, employment has grown at a rate of 500,000 new workers per year; permanent workers are increasing, temporary workers are decreasing, and so are the inactive ones. The May employment figure is an interesting indicator of what is happening to economic activity after GDP grew by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of the year. There were fears that the growth in the first quarter was the product of an advance in exports in view of the introduction of Trump's tariffs, and this fear was partially confirmed by the fact that employment remained stable in April. The strong recovery in hiring in May, however, also suggests a resumption of economic activity . This means that the target set by the government in the DFP of 0.6 percent growth in 2025 is within reach and can even be exceeded.
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