Between 2025 and 2029 global warming will increase by 1.5 degrees

Between 2025 and 2029, average global warming will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius , the World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ), a United Nations agency, predicts with 70% certainty . According to an annual climate report compiled by the UK Met Office based on forecasts from ten centres and published by the WMO, the planet is expected to maintain historic levels of warming even after the two warmest years on record (2023 and 2024).

The data indicate that in the next 5 years, from 2025 to 2029, temperatures will remain at record levels: there is an 80% probability that at least one year will exceed the current record holder as the hottest year , 2024 , and there is an 86% probability that in at least one case they will exceed 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level. The new report from the World Meteorological Organization highlights the growing risks of negative impacts on the economy and society, as well as on the entire planet.

“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record ,” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. “Unfortunately, this report provides no sign of respite in the coming years,” Barrett added, “and that means there will be increasing negative impacts on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”

The data provided indicates that the annual global mean temperature in 2025-2029 will be 1.2 to 1.9 degrees higher than in 1850-1900. There is also a 70% chance that the five-year average warming will also exceed 1.5 degrees, up from 47% in last year's report and 32% in the 2023 report.

The Arctic is particularly at risk , as it is already experiencing much faster warming than the rest of the planet: over the next five winters, from November to March , warming is expected to be more than 3.5 times higher than the global average , reaching 2.4 degrees higher than in the 1991-2020 period.

As for precipitation, however, the periods from May to September will be wetter in Northern Europe, the Sahel belt in central-northern Africa, Alaska and northern Siberia, while the Amazon will have to deal with drier seasons.