Asymmetric negotiation: Trump imposes, Sheinbaum contains

President Claudia Sheinbaum and Donald Trump sent contrasting messages after their 40-minute call yesterday, July 31. He affirmed that Mexico will continue to pay 25% tariffs on fentanyl and automobiles, 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper, and will eliminate "numerous non-tariff barriers." She celebrated the avoidance of a 30% tariff increase and the achievement of a 90-day truce "to build a long-term agreement through dialogue."

Later, during her morning press conference, the president reiterated that there were no new concessions, that the USMCA was safeguarded, and that Mexico would not budge on its principles. She asserted that "we reached a good agreement" and that the call was respectful. She was accompanied by the Secretaries of Commerce, Marcelo Ebrard; of Foreign Affairs, Juan Ramón de la Fuente; and the Undersecretary for North America, Roberto Velasco. The first two celebrated the fact that a major crisis was avoided thanks to Sheinbaum's negotiating spirit and her "cool head" strategy. Ebrard asserted that Mexico "has no non-tariff barriers" and that it was in a "much better position than the rest of the world," a claim that is not entirely supported.

However, beyond the optimistic statements, the measures imposed by Trump in February remain in place. The 25% tariff applies to products outside the USMCA, which Trump politically links to fentanyl. The 25% tariff on cars does not include auto parts, and the 50% tariff on metals affects even exports that do comply with the agreement. A deeper wound was avoided, but the bleeding persists. None of the tariffs have been reversed, and the relief is, for now, merely a postponement. The implicit message is clear: Trump didn't take anything away; he only postponed the additional blow.

While the president spoke of respect and dialogue, Trump imposed his narrative of victory. He didn't mention any concessions, but made it clear that Mexico must remove regulatory obstacles if it wants a final agreement. Although the president insisted that no new promises were made, the acknowledgment that "non-tariff issues" will be reviewed confirms that the table was marked by demands that could lead to structural changes. Intellectual property, pharmaceutical patents, labor rules, energy, and agriculture are all on the table and could translate into costly adjustments for key sectors of the national economy.

Since the tariffs went into effect, Mexico has lost more than 139,000 formal jobs and economic growth has weakened. BBVA estimates they could reduce GDP by up to 1.5 percentage points this year. The IMF, although it improved its estimate a few days ago, forecasts growth of just 0.2%. Moody's and the OECD have also lowered their forecasts, and sectors such as automotive, steel, electronics, and agri-food are already reporting drops in orders and investment cancellations.

Claudia Sheinbaum projected firmness and internal legitimacy; Trump, imposition and conditions. Both took credit for dialogue, but the reality is that he doesn't negotiate: he dictates; and she doesn't give in: she manages the damage. The 90-day extension is just that: time. If the tariffs aren't reduced, what was presented today as a diplomatic triumph could become, tomorrow, an economic disaster.

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