BBVA estimates that Aragon will create up to 18,000 jobs in two years

Aragon's economy, the subject of some of the main economic news of 2024, remains on track. According to BBVA, the region could create up to 9,000 additional jobs in the next two years, many of them in the field of professional services. A "favorable" outlook that will leave an unemployment rate of 8% and will be accompanied by GDP increases lower than last year (3%), but which will be above the European average.

Furthermore, the regional report presented today by the bank in Zaragoza does not take into account the 40 billion euros in investments announced in the community last year, which would allow for an upward revision of the data as they become reality. “For now, they are just announcements. In this sense, we are quite cautious when it comes to including them,” explained Miguel Cardoso, chief economist at BBVA Research.

Economy The outlook could be revised upwards as investment announcements materialise

According to the analysis, the Aragonese economy has shown “great dynamism” in 2024, driven by the good performance of domestic demand, especially private consumption and tourism. It also reflects an improvement in regional competitiveness due to the fall in oil prices and the increase in renewable energies, the decline in inflation and the reduction in interest rates.

Given this scenario, the bank expects Aragon to close 2024 with a GDP growth of 3%, which would rise to 2.2% and 1.8% in the next two years.

Read also Stellantis assigns Zaragoza and Vigo the platforms for small electric cars Ismael Arana

Cardoso cited the low growth in new construction, the political uncertainties surrounding the economy (US tariffs, the reduction in working hours and the process of fiscal consolidation) and the fall in exports, particularly in the automotive sector, as reasons for this slowdown.

“Europeans are not buying cars made in Aragon,” said the economist, who also stressed the “difficult times” that Germany, one of its main foreign partners, is going through. “There are doubts about whether, in the short term, there will be a recovery of the German economy or whether its problems are of a structural nature,” he added.

Read also Podoactiva, the world at your feet Ismael Arana

This year, employment remained dynamic in Zaragoza, the capital, home to half of the Aragonese population, and the urban areas of Huesca and Teruel. This was favoured by the dynamism in the hiring of nationals and the increase in the active population of immigrant origin, which accounted for between 20% and 25% of the jobs created in sectors such as tourism and hospitality.

In the coming months, the labour market will be boosted by the creation of new jobs in the services sector, which will account for between 50% and 60% of total employment growth. This sector includes jobs in the catering and hospitality industry as well as activities related to information and communications technologies, consultancy and private banking.

Read also Susana Remacha: the pioneer returns home Ismael Arana

Looking ahead, BBVA highlights that one of the key challenges is to advance policies that encourage investment, especially in the housing market in urban areas, where insufficient supply can limit economic development.

There is also concern about the future of the automotive industry in a region where it is a major player. “People are very uncertain about which vehicle to buy. Prices are still higher than those of combustion engines and there is a lack of charging infrastructure. We do not expect quick and effective solutions, which will hinder the growth of the sector,” added Cardoso.