IMF improves economic forecast for Mexico
Since the tariff escalation has slowed compared to its peak last April, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its growth forecast for the Mexican economy and the global economy.
Three months ago, the country was forecasting an economic contraction of -0.3% for Mexico, and now, in the updated Global Economic Outlook report, it has revised it upward to 0.2%. For 2026, it maintained the 1.4% forecast it had in the previous report.
In the document released Tuesday, titled "Global Economy: Weak Resilience Amid Persistent Uncertainty," it projects global growth of 3% for 2025, up from 2.8%. By 2026, it had risen from 3% to 3.1%.
READ: Dollar SINKS against Mexican peso; this is how it's trading today, Tuesday.But he warned that a rise in effective tariffs could lead to lower growth, while heightened uncertainty could begin to have a more severe impact on activity.
This will happen as deadlines for additional tariffs expire without progress on substantial and permanent agreements.
Geopolitical tensions could drive up commodity pricesHe also warned that geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and drive up commodity prices.
Long-term interest rates would rise in the face of a larger fiscal deficit or heightened risk aversion, which would tighten global financial conditions.
You may be interested in: DEA offers reward for information leading to the capture of Nicolás MaduroThe organization chaired by Kristalina Georgieva, estimated that global headline inflation will fall to 4.2% this year and 3.6% in 2026.
That is, he explained, a trajectory similar to the one projected in April.
According to the outlook, the overall picture masks notable differences across countries, with forecasts predicting inflation will remain above target in the United States and will be more moderate in other major economies.
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