OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production: impact on global prices and demand

OPEC+ , the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, announced an increase in oil production that will take effect in October, a move aimed at balancing global supply in the face of fluctuating demand. The increase will be 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) , a smaller figure compared to increases in previous months, but significant for the group's strategy.

Eight OPEC+ members agreed to this moderate increase after several increases since April, totaling approximately 2.5 million barrels per day . The decision responds to pressure from Saudi Arabia to regain global market share, albeit at a slower pace due to forecasts of weakening global demand.

This strategy differs from previous increases: 555 thousand bpd in September and August , and 411 thousand bpd in July and June , which demonstrates a more cautious approach in the current context of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The production increase represents about 2.4% of global demand , but analysts warn that it is not enough to significantly reduce prices, which are currently around $66 per barrel . Among the factors keeping prices high are Western sanctions on Russia and Iran , which limit these countries' export capacity, creating space for rivals like the United States to increase their production and take advantage of the opportunity.

OPEC+ policy is also influenced by the relationship between Washington and Moscow and the effects of the war in Ukraine . Russia, one of the group's main producers, relies on high oil prices to finance its war effort, but faces restrictions due to pressure from the United States and Europe on its energy sector.

In this context, President Donald Trump has exerted pressure on OPEC+ members and international allies to control crude oil prices. In August, he imposed additional tariffs on India for importing Russian oil, while in a recent conversation with leaders allied with Ukraine, he urged Europe to stop buying Russian oil , directly singling out Hungary and Slovakia.

OPEC+ maintains the flexibility to adjust its production policy based on evolving global demand and geopolitical dynamics. The group has announced that it reserves the right to accelerate, pause, or reverse increases at future meetings, with the next one scheduled for October 5, 2025 .

Experts are closely monitoring these decisions, considering that any changes could directly impact international oil prices , global inflation, and the economic stability of producing and consuming countries.

The moderate OPEC+ increase will have a differentiated effect: end consumers may not perceive an immediate change in prices, but the international energy market remains under constant surveillance. The combination of limited production and sanctions against Russia and Iran suggests that oil prices could remain high in the coming months, affecting both the industrial and energy sectors, as well as fuel prices in different regions of the world .

In conclusion, the recent OPEC+ agreement reflects a strategic balance between regaining market share and caution in the face of a potential decline in global demand . Saudi Arabia and its allies continue to adjust their production based on geopolitical, economic, and market factors, while consumers and investors remain attentive to oil price developments and the next moves of this influential group.