The IMF predicts an economic rebound for Argentina in 2025: Milei aligns with optimism.

In its World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its economic growth projection of 5.5% for Argentina in 2025 on Tuesday, in line with the estimates held by the Javier Milei government . The figure was welcomed by the Executive Branch, which interprets this forecast as external validation of the economic direction it has taken.

However, local analysts warn that the figure should be interpreted with caution. According to a recent report by the consulting firm Invecq , this percentage expansion is strongly influenced by the "statistical carryover effect" from the second half of 2024.

"The economy would close the year at levels similar to those at the end of 2024, so the additional growth required to reach the projected 5% would be just 1%," the document states.

The report also warns that the recovery that began in mid-2024 was interrupted in February 2025 , and that since March, prior to the partial lifting of the exchange rate controls , activity began to stagnate . Even so, NA reported, the IMF projects a significant improvement for next year.

The international organization's positive outlook is not limited to Argentina. Amid an international climate affected by the tariff war reactivated by Donald Trump , the IMF improved its global growth projection to 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 .

However, he warned of global risks and outlined a roadmap for developing countries, with key recommendations:

• Restore stable and credible rules in international trade.
• Strengthen the independence of central banks , highlighting their role during recent waves of inflation.
• Consolidate fiscally without slowing growth , referring to the fiscal adjustments underway.
• Boosting productivity through structural reforms, given the prolonged stagnation of emerging economies.

From the ruling party's perspective, the report's interpretation is clear: the IMF recognizes a historic shift in Argentina's economic policy . The decline in country risk, the fiscal surplus, and deregulatory reforms were touted as pillars of this optimism.

However, the local context is uneven : industrial activity remains depressed, consumption has not picked up, and social tensions due to falling real wages persist. The government is banking on a strong rebound , but many economists still see no clear signs of a sustainable recovery .