The labor backlog could cost Colombia $450 billion by 2030.

The lack of progress in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals, especially Goal 8, which focuses on promoting decent work, is putting the country at risk of economic loss and productivity, resulting in billions in losses for the economy.

This is one of the conclusions of the most recent report presented by the Colombian Security Council (CCS), presented during the 58th Congress on Safety, Health and Environment, which reveals that the accumulated losses due to failure to meet this objective could reach $450 billion by 2030.

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The calculation is based on a double structural lag: on the one hand, stagnant labor productivity, representing a potential loss of $243 billion; and on the other, high labor informality, whose impact on the economy is estimated at $207 billion. Both figures add up to a scenario of alarming economic inertia, which threatens not only GDP growth but also the government's capacity to invest in education, health, infrastructure, and social protection.

To better understand this panorama, it should be noted that one of the pillars of SDG 8 is to achieve 3% annual growth in GDP per person employed, a goal that reflects the commitment to modernize the economy, adopt technology, and promote high-value-added sectors. However, between 2015 and 2023, average growth was just 1.57% annually, according to data from the regional SDG database in Latin America.

Likewise, based on information from DANE (National Development Bank), the study estimates that by 2024 Colombia would have a GDP of $1.7 trillion and an employed population of 23.3 million, equivalent to $72.96 million pesos per worker per year. Maintaining this trend until 2030 would leave the country short of the target, failing to generate $243 billion in accumulated added value.

"These losses represent fewer resources available for social investment, productive development, and improvements in job quality, thus compromising the country's progress toward inclusive and sustainable economic growth," warned Adriana Solano Luque, executive president of the CCS.

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A millionaire burden

The second component of the analysis relates to persistent labor informality. While the country set a goal of reaching 60% formal employment by 2030, data from the first quarter of 2025 show that the rate barely reaches 43.2%. This means that approximately 3.9 million workers would need to formalize their employment in the next five years to meet the goal.

But beyond social backwardness, informality is also a fundamental economic problem, as the CCS used an estimate from the Bank of the Republic, according to which informal work can reduce productivity by up to 29%. When comparing this figure with the current GDP per worker, the study projects that, if informality persists, the country would lose $207 trillion in production between 2025 and 2030.

In this regard, Adriana Solano stated that "the lack of formal employment also limits tax and parafiscal collection, affecting the financing of essential public goods. Informality implies a lower contribution to tax and parafiscal collection, which limits the State's ability to finance health, education, infrastructure, and social protection." The report also reveals that informality is not evenly distributed and that the problem is concentrated in smaller productive units, focusing on figures from the National Statistics Institute (DANE) (National Statistics Institute) (DANE) that reveal that by 2025, only 14.6% of those employed in microenterprises will be formally employed, compared to 79.9% in small businesses, 94.3% in medium-sized businesses, and 97.4% in large businesses.

This data highlights the structural challenge of strengthening the business fabric of micro and small enterprises, where the largest volume of employment is concentrated, but also where the greatest gap in formalization is found. This is where public policy must focus if we want to reverse this trend.

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Tax invoice

The CSS explained that the direct consequence of failing to meet SDG 8 is not only economic but also fiscal. Losing productivity and maintaining high levels of informality limits the country's potential growth, hinders the dynamism of the domestic market, and reduces its tax collection capacity. This triple impact directly impacts the sustainability of public spending and jeopardizes the financing of social investment.

The study concludes that Colombia is not only failing to generate wealth, but is also losing structural opportunities for equity, especially among vulnerable populations such as women, youth, rural workers, and people with disabilities, who are the most affected by informality.

Faced with this situation, the Colombian Security Council proposes a comprehensive strategy that combines public-private partnerships, innovation, a differentiated approach, and the strengthening of MSMEs. One of the first necessary actions is for Colombia to ratify ILO Recommendation 204, which promotes the transition from the informal to the formal economy and which, although adopted in 2015, has not yet been officially incorporated by the country.

The entity also proposes promoting tax incentives and co-financing programs, specifically aimed at companies that generate decent, equitable, and guaranteed employment for traditionally excluded populations, such as women, youth, and people with disabilities. At the same time, it recommends encouraging the creation and formalization of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, supporting them with technical, technological, and vocational training programs that strengthen their capabilities and sustainability.

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Another key focus is incorporating a differential and intersectional approach into all formalization policies to address specific barriers faced by rural communities, ethnic groups, and people with disabilities.

Finally, in the business sphere, the CCS suggests strengthening supply chains that link large companies with MSMEs through technology transfer, good labor practices, innovation, and ongoing training, thereby boosting productivity and decent work throughout the entire value chain.

"These actions must be accompanied by ongoing evaluation processes that allow us to measure the real impact of the implemented strategies, efficiently adjust resources, and ensure better coordination between the State, the business sector, unions, academia, and workers," they concluded.

The Colombian Security Council warned that the clock is ticking for the country, and if urgent and coordinated decisions are not taken, Colombia will not only fail to meet SDG 8, but will also deepen the structural inequalities that hinder its development.