The law of the pendulum

The results of the German elections have once again confirmed the law of the pendulum. The more radical the left becomes, the more strongly the pendulum swings to the right. This is what has happened in the USA with the great success of Donald Trump, in Italy with Giorgia Meloni, or in France with Marine Le Pen. It is a trend that is becoming more widespread in the developed countries of the West. Social democracy, heavily influenced by radical left-wing parties, is practically disappearing in the EU.

Spain is no exception. All the polls, except Tezanos' CIS, indicate that the left-wing bloc is losing support, while the right-wing bloc is growing stronger, especially Vox. This is not due to a virus that appeared overnight like Covid. It is the result of a series of factors among which the economy has played a decisive role. The purchasing power of most workers has been reduced since 2008, when the financial crash occurred due to subprime mortgages.

It is no coincidence that the AfD won in all the states of the former GDR.

The left took over from the neoliberal right of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, and for the last few decades it has governed with radicalised parties. This explains why it has made a series of wrong decisions. Despite this, it has not made any self-criticism that would explain why society is increasingly moving to the right.

It is no coincidence that the far-right AfD has won in all the former GDR states. People who grew up and lived under the yoke of communism have gone over to the other extreme whenever they have had the chance. In contrast, the CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democrat winner, has drawn its votes from what was once the FRG. The Social Democrats of the SPD have simply collapsed.

The left has made increased spending, debt and tax rises its hallmarks. This, together with the massive and uncontrolled arrival of immigrants and identity-based excesses, is what explains why the pendulum has swung to the other extreme.

This is what is happening to Pedro Sánchez, who is moving further away from classical social democracy every day. His allies from Podemos, Sumar, ERC and Bildu have forced him to embrace approaches that have aggravated problems such as housing, the lack of expectations for young people and the increase in poverty rates.

It is true that wealth has grown in absolute terms during his term of office. But if inflation, population growth and tax increases are discounted from this increase, the result is a fall in the purchasing power of wages. GDP has risen, but per capita income, which is what matters, has fallen. And all this without forgetting that we owe more than 1.62 trillion euros.

As popular wisdom says, “when you see your neighbor’s beard being cut, soak yours.”