Tariffs: The crisis that Sheinbaum and the opposition use as a weapon

Donald Trump's tariff threat has triggered an intense political chess match in Mexico. While President Sheinbaum counterattacks by pointing to arms trafficking from the U.S., the opposition is using the crisis to criticize the government's security policy.

The threat of a 30% tariff imposed by the United States has transcended the economic sphere to become the epicenter of a complex political battle in Mexico. The crisis has provided all political actors, from the government to the opposition, with a powerful weapon to advance their respective agendas, revealing the deep fractures and strategies in the management of the relationship with Mexico's northern neighbor and national security.

The central challenge for President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration is monumental: negotiating a way out of a crisis where economic levers are intrinsically linked to the security demands of a dominant and often unpredictable trading partner.

For opposition parties, primarily the National Action Party (PAN), Trump's threat is irrefutable proof of the failure of the current administration's security strategy. Opposition legislators have argued that the tariff is nothing more than a direct consequence of the Mexican government's inability to control the cartels and stem the flow of drugs to the United States.

This narrative seeks to capitalize on citizen discontent with insecurity and position the opposition as the only force capable of "redirecting" a policy that, in its view, has jeopardized the country's economic stability. The message is clear: weak security translates into economic vulnerability.

In the face of these accusations, Sheinbaum's administration has deployed a powerful counternarrative seeking to rebalance the scales of responsibility. The president has publicly emphasized that violence in Mexico is largely fueled by the massive, illegal flow of high-powered weapons from the United States.

By focusing on arms trafficking, the Mexican government is not only defending itself against criticism but also going on the diplomatic offensive, arguing that the security crisis is a matter of shared responsibility that cannot be resolved solely through Mexican action. This "blame game" is a tactic designed both to strengthen Mexico's negotiating position and to consolidate domestic nationalist support.

While the political battle rages in Mexico, it's important to note the internal pressures facing Donald Trump himself. Issues such as the "Epstein enigma" and the need to keep his MAGA fan base mobilized could be influencing his aggressive foreign policy, using tariffs as a tool of distraction or a show of force for his electorate.

Despite internal polarization, the external threat has generated some moments of unity. A notable example is the unanimous support that the Congress of Nuevo León, a state with a strong opposition presence, has expressed for the federal government's negotiations. This gesture demonstrates that, in the face of a direct threat to the national economy, cross-party consensus can emerge, even if temporary.

The tariff crisis, therefore, is much more than a trade dispute. It is a mirror that reflects the tensions, strategies, and vulnerabilities of Mexican politics in the 21st century, where internal security, foreign policy, and economic health are inextricably intertwined.