Euro below PLN 4.30. Market awaits decisions of central bankers

Wednesday is the central bank day. The decisions will be made by Poland Monetary Policy Council and the US Federal Open Market Committee. In While waiting for these decisions, currency markets functioned calmly.

The decision of the Monetary Policy Council is expected in the afternoon, which After a break of almost a year and a half, it is to return to cutting interest rates . The market consensus suggests that we should expect a cut of 50 basis points right away, but really almost any decision is possible here (except maybe a pay rise feet). As usual, we do not know the time of publication of the Council's decision. However, the market prices in a cut of as much as 75 basis points – the same scale as in September 2023.

- The scale will be very important for the zloty quotes NBP rate cuts, as well as the announcement after the MPC meeting. It may allow to verify the very optimistic market estimates of the scale of this year's reductions rates, which have clearly weighed on the zloty in recent weeks - they wrote PKO BP analysts in the morning note.

In addition, in the evening (at 8:00 p.m. Polish time) we will find out statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. Both the market and economists assume the federal funds rate will be kept at unchanged level. However, Jerome's press conference will be key here Powell and the extent of her “dovishness.” The market expects a 25-basis-point reduction rates in the US by the July FOMC meeting at the latest.

In anticipation of these events, the euro exchange rate It was quite calm, remaining at the level of PLN 4.2724 after an increase of close to the penny recorded on Tuesday. From a technical point of view, the quotes Eurozloty remain in a narrow sideways trend, in the range of PLN 4.25-4.30. Only a permanent breakout of any of these levels would allow us to expect a larger volatility and a stronger move up (more likely) or down.

The situation on the main pair remained unchanged currency market in the world. The EUR/USD exchange rate is "resting" after the spring rally, which amounted to from less than 1.04 to over 1.15. On Wednesday morning, the euro was valued at 1.1362 dollars. On the Polish market it meant a dollar at PLN 3.7574, which is 0.7 groszy more expensive than the day before.

Swiss franc was quoted almost unchanged at PLN 4.5528. On the franc-zloty pair for a month we are seeing a stabilization similar to that of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. Looking more broadly, it is however, this is only a shallow correction of the April wave of strengthening of the Helvetian currency, which left the winter downtrend with a bang.

KK

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