Will Poland Backfire for US Decisions on Belarus? Expert on Greater Pressure on Our Border

The United States paid the regime in Minsk for the freedom of 52 political prisoners by lifting sanctions on the Belarusian airline Belavia. "This could result in increased pressure on our border," warned Tadeusz Iwański of the Center for Eastern Studies.

During a meeting with Lukashenko last Thursday, Donald Trump’s envoy, John Coale, announced the lifting of sanctions on the Belarusian state airline Belavia, imposed in mid-2022.

According to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, this move could be beneficial for Russia because it will enable it to purchase spare parts through a Belarusian carrier.

Belsat journalist Jakub Biernat, interviewed by PAP, considers such a development highly likely, noting that it would not be an unprecedented situation.

– Wherever Belarus can circumvent the sanctions, and in both directions, it does so – he stressed.

He recalled that when, in response to sanctions imposed by the West in 2014, Russia introduced an embargo on Western food, Belarus quickly became a hub for Polish apples.

He added that the Belarusian authorities have the capabilities and developed systems to profit in this way. This, of course, applies to companies associated with Lukashenko and his entourage. "I think it will be similar with aircraft spare parts – trading them will become an additional source of income and allow them to gain further points in the eyes of Kremlin officials," Biernat assessed.

Another PAP interviewee, Tadeusz Iwański, head of the Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova team at the Centre for Eastern Studies, emphasized that Russia has already established channels to circumvent sanctions in the import of spare parts and aircraft maintenance. In this situation, Belarus could become another such channel.

The expert noted that the lifting of sanctions is a small thing for the United States, but a crucial one for the regime in Minsk. "Due to European and American sanctions, the Belarusian carrier was not flying to Europe, but was instead flying to and through Russia. This decision will enable the resumption of connections and the launch of new ones," Iwański argued.

In his opinion, this could signal a problem that Poland will feel more acutely. As the OSW expert explained, over the past few months, Minsk has been significantly intensifying its relations with countries such as Pakistan, Iran, and Libya. This has been reflected in the conclusion of visa-free travel agreements and the launch of direct flights. Combined with the improvement of the Belarusian national carrier's fleet, this could soon result in an increase in the number of people attempting to illegally enter Poland, among other countries.

"For some time now, we've been seeing around 100-200 attempts to illegally cross the Polish border from the Belarusian side every day. These are people who flew to Russia and then made their way by land to Belarus and finally to the borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia," Iwański explained, adding that if improving the Belarusian fleet allows for the resumption and opening of connections with countries that are sources of labor migration, this will result in increased pressure on the border.

The expert cautioned that, in his opinion, this doesn't mean that the Americans have lifted sanctions to deliberately increase pressure on the European Union's external borders. He recalled that the Bielavia issue had come up before, during visits by high-ranking American officials – John Coale, Christopher Smith, and Keith Kellogg. "This happened this time, and the price was the freedom of 52 political prisoners, including presidential candidate Mikola Statkevich, who chose not to leave Belarus," he emphasized.

According to the industry website Airfleets Aviation, Bielawia's fleet consists of a dozen or so machines, including 10 Boeing 737-800, 737-300 and 737 Max 8 versions, 5 Embraer 195 and 175 and 3 Airbus A330-200.

Currently, Belavia operates flights from Minsk to Russia (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Kazan, Murmansk, Yekaterinburg, Sochi, Königsberg, Makhachkala), Turkey (Istanbul), Georgia (Batumi, Kutaisi, Tbilisi), Armenia (Yerevan), Azerbaijan (Baku), Kyrgyzstan (Tashkent) and China (Urumqi).

Following Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada imposed sanctions on Russia, including on its aviation sector. Airspace was closed to Russian carriers, a ban on the supply of aircraft, spare parts, and equipment was introduced, as well as a ban on servicing and insuring Russian aircraft.

The sanctions also meant a suspension of leasing contracts. In response, Russia introduced a law allowing the seizure of aircraft it operated. A total of approximately 400 aircraft were confiscated from leasing companies. The Irish company AerCap suffered the greatest losses, with Moscow "nationalizing" nearly 150 of its aircraft and parts, worth nearly $3.5 billion.

Sanctions have forced Moscow to seek solutions to maintain its fleet. Older Russian aircraft, such as the Tu-214 and Il-96, have been increasingly used. Russians are also attempting to independently produce spare parts for Western aircraft and are resorting to "cannibalization," the dismantling of older aircraft to obtain parts for newer ones.

Russia also sources parts through a network of intermediaries and front companies in countries that have not supported Western restrictions. Key points in the supply chain include China, some Central Asian countries, and the Middle East. As Le Monde reported last July, Turkey is also reported to be a donor.

This system is not only costly but also has serious safety implications. Components obtained this way are often counterfeit, uncertified, and their technical condition is unknown. This leads to a higher number of aviation incidents.

While 36 such incidents were recorded in Russian civil aviation in 2022, this number was 74 in 2023. According to Novaya Gazeta. Europa, there were as many as 208 such incidents last year.

The most serious of these was the crash of an An-24 passenger plane near Tynda in the Amur Oblast in the east of the country, which occurred on July 24 of this year. As a result of the tragedy, 48 people died. The plane had been in operation since 1976. (PAP)

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