Negative assessment of Lula's government jumps in Bahia and Pernambuco, says Genial/Quaest

The negative evaluation of the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has soared in Bahia and Pernambuco, two of the largest states in the Northeast in terms of population, according to a Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday, the most recent survey to indicate a moment of low popularity of the government.

The survey also showed an increase in disapproval of Lula in the two most populous states in the region, which are traditionally his electoral stronghold, as well as a high negative assessment and disapproval of the president in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Goiás, the other six states surveyed.

In Bahia, the negative evaluation of the government was 38%, compared to 21% in December last year, while the positive evaluation was 30%, compared to 44%, and the average evaluation was 31%, compared to 34%. Also among Bahians, disapproval of Lula jumped to 51%, compared to 33%, while approval plummeted to 47%, compared to 66% in the previous survey.

In the survey commissioned by Genial Investimentos, the Quaest institute interviewed 1,200 people in Bahia between February 19 and 23, and the margin of error is 3 percentage points.

In the same vein, in Pernambuco, the negative evaluation of the government totaled 37%, compared to 23% in December, while the positive evaluation was 33%, compared to 48%, and the average evaluation was 29%, compared to 28%. Disapproval of Lula also soared in Pernambuco, to 50%, compared to 33%, while approval plummeted to 49%, compared to 65%.

1,104 people were interviewed in Pernambuco between February 19 and 23, the margin of error is 3 percentage points.

In the other six states surveyed, the government received a negative evaluation of 55% in São Paulo (compared to 38% in December), 51% in Minas Gerais (compared to 32%), 50% in Rio de Janeiro, 59% in Paraná (compared to 37%), 52% in Rio Grande do Sul and 58% in Goiás (compared to 41%). No comparative data was presented for Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul.

Conversely, the positive evaluation of the government fell in all states. In São Paulo it totaled 16% (compared to 27%), in Minas it was 22% (compared to 34%), in Rio it totaled 19%, in Paraná it was 20% (compared to 26%), in Rio Grande do Sul it was 19% and in Goiás it totaled 18% (compared to 26%).

In these six states, disapproval of Lula exceeded 60%: 69% in São Paulo (compared to 55%), 63% in Minas (compared to 47%), 64% in Rio de Janeiro, 68% in Paraná (compared to 53%), 66% in Rio Grande do Sul and 70% in Goiás (compared to 56%).

Approval of the president did not exceed 35% in any of these six states: 29% in São Paulo (compared to 43%), 35% in Minas (compared to 51%), 35% in Rio de Janeiro, 30% in Paraná (compared to 44%), 33% in Rio Grande do Sul and 28% in Goiás (compared to 41%).

The survey also interviewed, between February 19 and 23, 1,644 people in São Paulo, 1,482 in Minas, 1,400 in Rio de Janeiro, 1,104 in Paraná, 1,404 in Rio Grande do Sul and 1,104 in Goiás. In São Paulo, the margin of error is 2 percentage points, in the other states it is 3 percentage points.

In all eight states surveyed, the perception of a worsening economy in the last 12 months was at least 50%. In Bahia and Pernambuco, this perception was 50% and 51%, respectively. In São Paulo it was 62%, in Minas Gerais 59%, in Rio de Janeiro 60%, in Paraná 61%, in Rio Grande do Sul 56% and in Goiás 58%.

"The feeling of a worsening economy can be explained by the almost unanimous perception of an increase in food prices in the 8 states surveyed," said Quaest director Felipe Nunes, on his X account.

The assessment that food prices have risen in the last month was over 90% in all states surveyed, reaching 95% in Bahia and 92% in Pernambuco. In Rio de Janeiro and Minas, 94% had this assessment, a percentage that reached 95% in São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul and 96% in Goiás and Paraná.

In the two Northeastern states surveyed, the assessment that Brazil is on the wrong path was 57% in Bahia and 55% in Pernambuco. In all the other six states surveyed, this level exceeded 60%, reaching 67% in São Paulo, 66% in Minas, 67% in Rio de Janeiro, 66% in Paraná, 63% in Rio Grande do Sul and 68% in Goiás.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Despite the general deterioration, especially in the two largest states in the Northeast, the survey indicated that Lula still has electoral strength in Bahia and Pernambuco. In a possible second round in 2026 against former president Jair Bolsonaro, currently ineligible by decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Lula would win by 59% to 26% in Bahia and by 57% to 31% in Pernambuco.

Lula is still tied with Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro at 41%, losing within the margin of error in Minas (40% to 42%) and Rio Grande do Sul (38% to 44%), while Bolsonaro would win in São Paulo (45% to 36%), Paraná (51% to 30%) and Goiás (50% to 30%).

The Genial/Quaest survey in eight states that account for 62% of the Brazilian electorate is the most recent survey to show a worsening in the popularity of Lula and his government.

On Tuesday, a CNT/MDA survey showed that the negative evaluation of the government exceeded the positive one and that disapproval of Lula exceeded approval. Released in the middle of this month, a Datafolha survey showed Lula with his worst approval ratings in all his terms.