Brazil will grow 2.4% in 2025, says IMF

Brazil will grow slightly more than expected, at 2.4%, in 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Tuesday, the 14th, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. This figure is slightly lower than in 2024, when the country grew 3.4%.

Latin America and the Caribbean will grow 2.4% in 2025, unchanged from last year, a “stable” figure despite the threat of US tariffs.

The region's economy "will decline slightly to 2.3% in 2026," the WEO explained.

“The forecast for 2025 was revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points compared to April due to lower-than-expected tariffs for most countries and more robust-than-expected data,” the text indicated, referring to regional data.

The upward revision “is largely due to Mexico, which is expected to grow 1% in 2025, 1.3 percentage points more” than projected in April.

Globally, the Fund also raises its outlook to 3.2%, instead of the 3% expected in July.

Fears of major global uncertainty due to tariffs announced by Republican Donald Trump at the start of his presidency have been dissipating, though not completely.

The Fund raised its growth forecast for the United States by 0.1 percentage point this year and next, to 2% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.

“Modest” impact

“The impact on growth from the trade shock is modest so far,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters ahead of the report’s release.

For the region, the most notable growth is that of Argentina , despite its current financial difficulties, with an impressive +4.5% compared to the -1.3% contraction recorded in 2024.

Colombia will grow 2.5%, Chile 2.5% and Peru 2.9%; Ecuador will register 3.2%, Bolivia 0.6%, Uruguay 2.5%, Paraguay 4.2% and Venezuela 0.5%.

“The year 2025 was fluid and volatile, with much of the momentum driven by a reshuffling of policy priorities in the United States and the adaptation of policies in other economies to new realities,” the report explained.

“Trade dominated the headlines, and along with it, the perceived outlook for the global economy fluctuated,” he added.

The shadow of inflation

The Fund and the vast majority of experts were alarmed when Trump announced, upon taking office, that he would use tariffs as a negotiating weapon to address the large trade deficit that the United States had with virtually all of its partners.

But the imposition of these tariffs from April onwards was accompanied by the negotiation of bilateral trade treaties and continued technological investment in advanced countries, keeping the economic engine running.

In any case, there are clouds, such as inflation , whose records “surprised to the upside in Mexico and the United Kingdom”.

“Besides China, emerging markets and developing economies in general have shown strength, sometimes due to particular domestic reasons, but recent signs also point to a fragile outlook,” the text explained.

"External conditions are becoming more challenging, and in some cases, domestic momentum is slowing. For example, in Brazil, signs of moderation are emerging amid tight monetary and fiscal policies ," he explained.

The impact of policies to combat irregular immigration will also be noticeable, the Fund guarantees.

“In the United States, new immigration policies could reduce the country's GDP by between 0.3% and 0.7% per year,” the Fund explains, without further details.

The IMF's Latin America and Caribbean department will offer a more detailed perspective on the region at the end of its annual meeting in Washington.