The math doesn't add up: interest, debts and bets explain record defaults

The financial health of Brazilian families reached a critical point in July, with 78.2 million people with bad credit, the highest number since 2016, according to Serasa Experian. Debts overdue for more than 90 days total R$482 billion. Almost half of the adult population (47.9%) is in default, particularly in Amapá (64%), the Federal District (60.9%), and Rio de Janeiro (57%). Banks, credit card companies, and financial institutions account for 46.9% of these debts.

According to data from the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services, and Tourism (CNC), the percentage of families in debt reached 78.5% in July, the highest since June 2024. Experts point out that high interest rates, tight family budgets, and the search for short-term credit create a vicious cycle of debt. The growth of online sports betting also contributed to this scenario.

A vicious cycle of recidivism and tight budgets

Repeated default is a structural problem. The National Association of Credit Bureaus (ANBC) reports that 83% of consumers with a negative credit rating in May 2025 had already faced the same situation in the previous 12 months. Of these, 63% received a new negative credit rating, and 20% had regularized their situation but fell back into debt. Only 17% were blacklisted for the first time.

Elias Sfeir, president of ANBC, emphasizes that "the recurrence reveals that we are facing recurring events, signaling a deeper, often chronic, budgetary imbalance."

This financial fragility is evident in the speed with which families' money disappears. A study of 8,000 people conducted by fintech Klavi, which specializes in financial data intelligence via Open Finance, shows that 35% of them spend all their income within 36 hours of receiving it, and 56% have less than R$100 available in their accounts during this period. Bruno Chan, CEO of Klavi, explains that "the data shows that Brazilians have little financial room for maneuver. What comes into their accounts, for the most part, goes out almost immediately to cover fixed expenses and debts."

The Brazilian Workers' Financial Health Survey, conducted by SalaryFits, a company affiliated with Serasa Experian, reinforces this perception by showing that 54% of formal workers are unable to make ends meet with their salaries. Those most affected are Generation Z, Class C, PJ (legal entity) workers, and those working for smaller companies. According to Délber Leite, CEO of SalaryFits, "without job security, workers feel their personal lives are directly affected."

The Bets Factor: How Online Betting Makes the Situation Worse

Online gambling, or betting , plays a significant role in increasing debt. Data from Mapfre Investimentos indicates that gambling consumes a growing portion of the household budget, and approximately 57% of indebted individuals who started gambling were not in default before this activity. This trend suggests that gambling is a factor in the deterioration of financial health, and default rates are unlikely to decrease in the short term.

Debt also directly affects the population's well-being: 66% of respondents reported increased stress, 43% irritability and 39% insomnia.

To pay off debts, 49% of workers who cannot make ends meet with their salary resort to alternative sources, such as lines of credit (card, overdraft, loan) or family income, in addition to working as freelancers .

Changes in consumption: consumer reaction to the crisis

The consequence of this scenario is a drastic change in consumer behavior. With tight budgets, consumers become more cautious, prioritizing value for money and reducing impulse purchases.

The Brand Footprint Brazil survey, conducted by Worldpanel by Numerator, indicates lower brand loyalty and a more selective purchasing attitude. Leandro Rosadas, a supermarket management specialist, notes that "Brazilians are more attentive to special offers and products that combine quality and fair prices."

This trend is evident in categories like cleaning supplies, where lower-priced brands grew 5.6% in value last year, twice as much as premium brands, according to NielsenIQ. Gabriel Fagundes, the company's director of insights, emphasizes that "the competitive advantage in price was crucial for these brands to win over new consumers."

Restricted credit: the effects on your pocket

The pressure on consumers' wallets is also felt in the financial system. With household default rates reaching 4.54% in July—the highest level since 2013, according to the Central Bank—financial institutions are reacting with greater caution, restricting credit supply.

Claudio Felisoni, president of the Brazilian Institute of Retail and Consumer Market Executives (Ibevar) and professor at FIA Business School, concludes that "the projection indicates growing pressure on the family budget, reflecting the impact of high interest rates on consumer credit."