Right-wing Nawrocki in narrow lead in Poland's presidential race – late poll

Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki is narrowly leading in Poland's presidential runoff, according to a late poll.

The Ipsos late poll shows Nawrocki with 50.7% of the vote, while centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski received 49.3% – a reversal from the earlier exit poll, which had shown Trzaskowski slightly ahead.

Turnout reached 72.8%, one of the highest levels in recent Polish elections. Trzaskowski performed well in major cities, while Nawrocki led in rural areas and among older voters.

Trzaskowski is a senior figure in Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO). He campaigned on strengthening ties with the EU, advancing judicial reforms, easing abortion restrictions, and introducing civil partnerships for LGBTQ couples.

Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, ran on a platform of Catholic values, greater national sovereignty, and rebalancing Poland's relationship with the EU.

Both candidates pledged to increase defense spending, responding to calls from US President Donald Trump for Europe to contribute more to NATO. They also support continued aid to Ukraine. However, Trzaskowski backs Ukraine's NATO membership, calling it vital to Poland's security. Nawrocki has said he would not ratify it, warning it could drag NATO into a war with Russia.

“Poland needs a president who will defend the constitution and our values,” Nawrocki said during his final campaign appearance on Friday. Trzaskowski told supporters he envisions “a modern European Poland that protects freedoms and the rule of law.”

The official results are expected on Monday, when the National Electoral Commission announces the final count.