Forecasts for the exchange rate in July differ by twenty rubles: what worries the national currency

For July 2025, economists and analysts are including a moderate weakening of the ruble in the baseline scenarios, but without any sharp movements. The forecast range is from 77 to 85 rubles per dollar, with some estimates allowing for both the strengthening of the ruble to 70 per $1 and its weakening to 89. The main factors are the end of the tax period, the policy of the Bank of Russia, the dynamics of export revenue, as well as geopolitical risks and the situation on the raw materials markets.

The Central Bank is expected to lower the rate, but will act with restraint. Experts do not rule out volatility, but in general consider the ruble to be resistant to short-term shocks, unless new external risks arise.

Financial analysts' assessment: the ruble exchange rate in July 2025 will be formed under the influence of a combination of factors, none of which by itself is capable of radically changing the dynamics, but in combination can lead to short-term deviations. The main variables include the tax calendar, the Central Bank's policy, the export-import balance and the geopolitical agenda. Analysts give a wide range of forecasts - from 70 to 89 rubles per $1, but the basic estimates fit into the corridor of 80-85 per $1.

According to the assessment of Garda Capital investment strategist Alexander Bakhtin, the greatest impact on the exchange rate in July will be exerted by the change in the balance of exports and imports, the dynamics of raw material prices and signals from the Bank of Russia. "In addition, in July, the demand for currency from outbound tourists may become more pronounced," the expert adds.

According to him, a rate of 70 rubles per $1 is possible only with a significant easing of geopolitical tensions. For example, if political agreements are reached and sanctions are lifted. The analyst considers the scenario with a rate of around 89 rubles per $1 to be overly pessimistic: "For this, the inflow of export revenues must shrink and, at the same time, imports must sharply increase. There are no prerequisites for either."

An additional factor in July may be the end of the tax period, as warned by leading analyst of AMarkets Igor Rastorguev. This means a reduction in the volume of foreign exchange earnings returned to the country by exporters to pay taxes. "If the supply of currency from raw materials companies decreases, the pressure on the ruble will increase," the expert points out. At the same time, stable oil prices may partially offset this effect.

Also, according to Rastorguev, the ruble exchange rate is sensitive to global market conditions. High demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset may continue to exert pressure, especially against the backdrop of the unstable situation in Europe and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

According to Spartak Sobolev, head of investment strategy research at Alfa-Forex, the ruble is ending the first half of the year with a more than 20% strengthening against the dollar. The main support factors are the tough policy of the Bank of Russia, stable oil prices and the reduction of sanctions pressure. "In July, the Bank of Russia may continue to ease monetary policy within 1%, which will act as a factor in slowing the growing trend of the ruble in the range of 77-82.50 rubles per dollar," he notes.

The impact of the exchange rate change on the consumer market, according to Bakhtin, will be moderate. A stable weakening of the ruble by 10% may add slightly to the annual inflation. First of all, this will affect segments with a high currency component: household appliances, electronics, medicines, alcohol, and also tourist services.

Most experts consider the scenario of a sharp devaluation unlikely at this stage. The Central Bank, as analysts emphasize, is focused not on supporting a certain rate, but on smoothing out sharp fluctuations.

It will still have at its disposal currency interventions, regulation of norms for the repatriation of export earnings, and monetary instruments. However, the application of these measures will be targeted and reactive - in the case of short-term imbalances.

For private investors and consumers, according to experts, July is a good time for planned diversification. "If you need currency for a trip abroad or to form the currency part of your portfolio, the current moment can be considered favorable. But for systematic savings, it is better to buy currency in small portions," Bakhtin advises. This will help to neutralize the effect of short-term volatility and avoid investments at an unfavorable rate.

In general, July, according to market participants' expectations, will be marked by moderate exchange rate dynamics. The level of 80 rubles per dollar becomes a benchmark for most forecasts. At the same time, the main risks are external: increased sanctions pressure, lower prices for raw materials, as well as an unpredictable reaction of global markets. For now, the ruble maintains its position within the expected range, demonstrating relative stability in conditions of limited money supply and weak imports.