How did the election results resonate in Germany?
Germany has just completed its highest turnout since reunification in federal elections. With 83 percent of the nearly 60 million voters casting their votes, the CDU/CSU alliance came out on top as expected. The pro-Nazi far-right AfD came in second. The traffic lights coalition, the SPD, the Greens and the FDP all suffered losses.
According to demographic studies, one of the most significant vote shifts in the election occurred between the SPD and the CDU/CSU. Approximately 2 million votes went from the Social Democrats to the conservative CDU/CSU.
The Left Party, which made a surprise appearance in the election by receiving 8.8 percent of the vote, received votes from both the SPD and the Greens. 560 thousand voters from the SPD and 700 thousand voters from the Greens voted for the Left Party in this election.
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Young people aged 18-24 tended to vote towards the extreme ends of the political spectrum, voting mostly for the far-right AfD and the Left Party, while the more traditional parties SPD and CDU received the lowest percentages of votes from young voters.
The Green Party, which has long been a favorite of young people, also had one of the lowest vote rates in this age group. Voters over the age of 60 were also more likely to vote for the SPD and CDU in this election.
How did men and women vote?Men tend to vote more conservatively than women, voting more for the CDU and AfD, while women voted more for the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party.
The gender gap is only a few percentage points, excluding votes for the AfD.
The gender gap between men and women voting for the AfD is 7 percentage points. For other parties, the gender gap is only around 2-3 percentage points.
How did voting differ by education level?Voters without a university education were more likely to vote for conservative parties, with the SPD following the CDU and AfD.
People with a basic level of education are twice as likely to vote for the AfD as those with higher education. German voters with higher education are twice as likely to vote for the Greens and the Left Party as those with a basic level of education.
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Nationally, the AfD received around 20 percent of the vote, but the results vary significantly from region to region. The pro-Nazi AfD is currently the strongest party in eastern Germany.
In the states of Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, the far-right party is clearly ahead, with more than 30 percent of the second-place votes going to the AfD in many constituencies. The CDU and SPD are far behind the AfD.
In Thuringia, home state of Björn Höcke, who was convicted for using banned Nazi slogans, the AfD won more than 38 percent of the vote, almost double that of the CDU.
The capital, Berlin, is an exception in the eastern part of Germany. Berlin is a stronghold of the Left Party.
For the first time, the AfD won a majority of second-party votes in two constituencies in the west of the country, Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern, but in both cities SPD candidates won a majority of first-party votes.
The East-West divide was also reflected in the distribution of votes for the CDU and SPD. The CDU/CSU received higher percentages of votes in the south, west and north. In Bavaria, the CSU won all 47 electoral districts.
The SPD achieved its strongest results in the north and west, where the party's traditional pro-labor policies still enjoy support, though overall it is at its lowest level in history.
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So what do the election results mean for Germany? What does the future hold for Germany?
The results of the German Federal Election were evaluated by Gönül Eğlence, the Green Party NRW State MP from Essen, for Habertürk.
1- All three parties that formed the traffic light coalition lost votes in the German Federal Elections. While the SPD fell to its lowest vote share in history, the FDP failed to pass the threshold. The Greens lost 3 points. What do you think is the reason for this?
The reason for the collapse of the coalition was the disagreement over the budget. On top of that, there was also great dissatisfaction with the coalition among voters and the media. Naturally, this also showed itself in the election results.
But there is also the fact that the Greens lost the least votes in the three-party coalition, in fact we reached the second best vote rate we have ever received. In other words, the biggest blow at the end of the three-party coalition was taken by the Liberals who planned the end of the coalition, while the Social Democrats reached the lowest vote rate in their history, the Greens achieved the second best result in their history.
The voters here do not seem to have considered the Greens equal to others in terms of coalition distribution. I think they saw our sincerity in taking responsibility.
"The consequences are terrible for democratic people"2- How did the pro-Nazi AfD's second place with 20 percent and more than 10 million votes resonate in Germany?
Naturally, all democratic people find this result terrifying. One in five people voted for a far-right party, which is the first time in Germany since World War II. When we look at the election map in particular, we see that it has reached 46 percent in cities like Görlitz in the eastern part of Germany. This concerns us all and poses a serious risk. As democratic parties, we must come up with solutions on how we can reach voters in the eastern regions, as well as in predominantly male and rural areas.
Let me also add this: the fact that it is increasingly gaining voters among immigrants, especially those of Turkish origin, is also becoming a big problem. On the one hand, this is probably related to the fact that this party reaches out to working people, to young people through social media; but most importantly, it is related to racism against immigrants, especially from Arab countries.
This racism is probably related to racism coming from their own countries. For example, Turkey hosts many refugees and this situation also leads to racist discourses in Turkish politics. Turkish origin people living in Germany see this news on television and interpret the same discourses in the same way towards here. However, the party called "Alternative to Germany" will not discriminate between Arabs or Turks in the end. In fact, since most of the Turkish origin people are Muslims, they are the primary target of racism. We need to explain this to our people in a more understandable way. The Turkish press also has a big responsibility here.
3- Even though no party wants to form a partnership with AfD in coalition talks, how will the party's vote share affect German politics? Could AfD become the first party in the next election?
Sooner or later, they will be the biggest opposition and for this reason alone, that is, for formal reasons, they will have certain priorities in the parliament. The simplest example is that they will have the most right to speak in the parliament.
Apart from that, he has already been able to use the discourse on immigration policy in his favor. The last proposal put forward by the Christian Democrats in parliament was already approved by the AfD.
4- How strong is the possibility of a tripartite coalition formed by CDU/CSU, SPD and the Greens?
The fact that BSW and FDP could not enter parliament almost eliminated this possibility. If that had not been the case, negotiations would have been difficult, but the Greens were ready to negotiate.
"The elderly population still remembers what fascism is"5- Why did Germany swing to the right? What does the future hold for the country and Europe?
Unfortunately, these developments are not specific to Germany. In fact, if you look at other European countries, such as the Netherlands, Austria or France, and also America, Germany is one of the last countries in this rightward shift. I think this is related to Germany's history.
Voters over the age of 70 know very well what fascism means. When you look at election analyses, you will see that this segment has a very low vote rate for the AfD.
In general, difficult years await us. We need a strong Europe against Trump in America and Putin in Russia.
I hope that the new government will take this and the millions of people with immigrant backgrounds into consideration in its political programs.
As the Greens, we will of course pursue a constructive but also critical opposition policy.
Habertürk