John Ivison: In a disappointing election night for all, Liberals had the least bad luck

OTTAWA — In early January, internal polling suggested that Justin Trudeau’s Liberals would win just 49 seats and sit in Parliament as the fourth party if a general election was called.

In one of the most stunning comebacks in Canadian political history, Mark Carney’s Liberals powered to victory on Monday, winning an estimated 165 seats in the process (as of 1:30 a.m. ET).

But Carney failed to secure a majority government, falling seven seats short of the 172-seat threshold. Party insiders had predicted between 187 and 195 seats.

At 1:09 a.m. in Ottawa, Carney emerged to thank the other leaders, including Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre for “his commitment to the country we both love.”

Carney said he planned to work constructively with all parties in Parliament and govern for all Canadians. “My message is: no matter where you live, what language you speak, or how you voted, I will do my best to represent everyone who calls Canada home,” he said. “Let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past.”

It was a disappointing night for everyone. The Conservatives added 28 MPs, with an estimated 147 seats, making breakthroughs in blue-collar Ontario towns like Sudbury and Stoney Creek. But with 215 of 266 polls reporting, it looked as if Poilievre was set to lose his Carleton seat to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy, in one of the great giant-killing acts in recent political history. Poilievre indicated he intends to stay on as leader, saying his purpose is, and will continue to be, to fight as a champion for the Conservative cause. He congratulated Carney on winning “a razor-thin” minority government.

Whether the party allows him to stay is an open question, given the fate of the previous two Conservative leaders.

The NDP will once again have a say in the balance of power, despite having shed 18 seats and leader Jagmeet Singh losing in his riding of Burnaby Central. In an emotional post-vote address, Singh said he is stepping down as party leader.

The Liberals won 43 per cent of the popular vote, seeing their support rise in every region of the country. The Conservative vote held strong with 41.7 per cent support, buoyed by deep disquiet about handing the Liberals a fourth term. It was the highest Conservative share of the vote since 1988.

But anxieties about a trade war with the Trump administration in Washington, D.C. saw support for the NDP and the Bloc Québécois collapse. Canada has suddenly become a two-party system.

The NDP won only six per cent of the vote, down from 18 per cent last time. The NDP lost its official party status, winning just seven seats, down from 25 last time. The Bloc lost nine MPs, down from 32 in 2021.

The switch in Liberal leaders was crucial. Voters were tired of Trudeau and wanted change. Carney took over the party, and the Conservatives tried to make the case that he was “just like Justin.”

But Carney was clearly cut from a different cloth: less performance, more gravitas. He immediately cut two Trudeau-era taxes: the consumer carbon tax and the hike in the capital gains tax.

Liberal candidates who were being chased from doorsteps earlier in the year were being welcomed as Carney took a hard line with the U.S. administration.

My Iran-born taxi driver on my way to the election night event in an Ottawa junior hockey rink asked who would win. I said the polls suggested the Liberals. “Ah … experience,” he said.

The spectre of President Donald Trump and his desire to make Canada the 51st state loomed large over this campaign. The more Trump mused about his expansionist ambitions, the more it created anxieties in Canada, and the more it reinforced the idea that Carney was a safer pair of hands to take on Trump. A constant refrain on the campaign trail was female supporters shouting at Carney: “Lead us, Big Daddy.”

Senior Liberals said their focus groups did not suggest Poilievre was “too Trumpy,” as some critics maintained. Rather, they worried that he was too inexperienced.

The Liberals had a strategy that focused on the trade war and Carney’s assertion that Trump is “trying to break us, so he can own us,” something he repeated again in his victory speech on Monday.

The Conservatives stuck to the strategy that had succeeded in earlier reducing Liberal support to fourth-party status, promising to axe the carbon tax, build homes, balance the budget and fight crime, even after Carney axed the tax and Trump pledged to annex Canada. “They weren’t agile,” said one Liberal strategist. The Conservatives tacitly agreed, taking Poilievre out of their late campaign ads.

The Conservatives may have been more resilient than expected but the context is that they were 20 points ahead in the polls six months ago.

However, the Liberal victory was less overwhelming than it might have been.

Carney went on the offensive in the final week, visiting seats the Liberals did not hold in Quebec (Trois Rivières), Ontario (Windsor West, London—Fanshawe and Niagara Falls), Alberta (Edmonton Southeast) and British Columbia (Victoria Centre).

Of those seats, Caroline Desrochers in Trois Rivières and Will Greaves in Victoria were the only pick-ups.

The early results in Atlantic Canada showed the Conservative vote was holding firm, flipping the Long Range Mountain seat in Newfoundland and Labrador early in the count.

But if Conservatives came out to vote, New Democrats either defected to the Liberals or stayed home.

The NDP vote in its B.C. heartland fell 16 per cent.

Poilievre’s pre-writ firebombing of the New Democrat leader as “sellout Singh” drove the NDP into single-digit support and helped propel Carney to victory.

The Liberals will be disappointed that they fell short of a majority. But everything is relative. Three months ago, they were facing oblivion.

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