Liberals and Conservatives fighting for support from centrist voters, poll shows

A survey taken earlier this month suggests that the Liberals are drawing significant support from the ideological centre, have eroded the NDP’s base and is even encroaching on traditionally Conservative territory — a trend that could shape the outcome of the 2025 federal election.

The poll conducted by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies found that the Liberals had secured about two thirds of voters who identify as left or left-of-centre. The NDP had 20 per cent support from those on the left and only eight per cent from those who identify as left of centre. The Liberals were also leading the Conservatives by 10 percentage points among those who place themselves in the ideological centre.

The survey found that 28 per cent of respondents identify as left or left of centre, 25 per cent in the centre and 23 per cent as right or right of centre. Another 25 per cent said they don’t know or prefer not to answer.

“The ideological spread has been fairly consistent over time,” said Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies and the Metropolis Institute. “From an electoral standpoint, the seven in ten Canadians who identify somewhere in the centre (left of centre, centre or right of centre) remain critical — they’re the ones most likely to reconsider their vote.”

The poll suggests the Liberals have found traction among voters across the spectrum. Notably, they’ve secured support from 23 per cent of those identifying as right of centre and nine per cent of those on the right.

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, dominate among right-leaning voters (82 per cent support from those on the right and 71 per cent from those who are right of centre), but they face hurdles in expanding beyond that base. “To make essential gains, the Conservatives must strengthen their support in the centre and regain right of centre voters drifting to the Liberals,” Jedwab said.

The survey found that 46 per cent of voters in the centre support the Liberals, compared to 35 per cent for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives “need to convince centrist voters that Carney lacks leadership strength,” he said.

“There’s a widespread sense that the stakes in this election are high,” Jedwab said. “Voters are focused on which leader is best positioned to address national challenges, including Canada’s relationship with the United States.”

The four major leaders were asked about how they would handle U.S. President Donald Trump and the trade war in the French and English debates last week. It remains to be seen if Poilievre was able to gain support from the centre and left of centre during the debates.

For the NDP, the outlook is more challenging. The Liberals’ surge has captured the NDP’s traditional base, and the party has struggled to make its core issues central to the national conversation.

“Progressive voters aren’t seeing their priorities — like social justice and equity — reflected in the current campaign,” Jedwab said. “The NDP hasn’t been able to insert those issues effectively.”