Russian economic meltdown as company bankruptcies explode and banks face bad loans crisis

The rate of bankruptcies among Russian companies has increased almost threefold since the beginning of the Ukraine war, as businesses struggle to pay back loans and find new markets for their goods.

The Russian economy has been buffeted by a growing economic storm that has seen the inflation rate surge to 9.5%.

The Central Bank has been forced to raise the key interest rate to a record high of 21% in an attempt to control inflation.

This has had a serious impact on businesses overleveraged on bank loans, which have become far more expensive to service.

At the same time, sanctions have restricted access to international markets for many export-orientated companies.

As a result, company bankruptcies have surged since 2021 despite the Kremlin injecting billions of pounds into the economy - most specifically into the military-defence complex.

Data shows that 18,000 firms closed their doors in 2021, while that figure jumped to an eye-watering 47,000 two years later and one year into the war.

And last year, even more firms went to the wall, with 52,000 bankruptcies officially reported.

The former head of Ukraine's National Bank believes that figure will continue to rise this year, even with a ceasefire.

"I believe this trend will continue into 2025," Kyrylo Shevchenko told the Express.

"The main sectors at risk of bankruptcy will be construction, due to expensive loans and low demand; small and medium-sized businesses, due to declining consumer purchasing power; and high-tech companies, due to a shortage of imported equipment and components.

"Additionally, I am confident that in 2025, we will continue to observe the same trend of population impoverishment as in previous years, mainly due to inflation, reductions in Government spending on social benefits, and increased taxes on the middle class."

Mr Shevchenko is also predicting a rise in the number of loans going bad, as consumers and businesses default on their debt payments.

He believes this will increase liquidity problems for the banks, adding to the financial system's structural weaknesses.

"As more and more borrowers cease servicing their loans and less liquidity flows into bank accounts, I perceive this news rather negatively, as evidenced by the declining liquidity indicators of the banking sector.

"Additionally, official reports do not allow for an assessment of the level of off-balance sheet assets, which pose no less of a risk to banks.

"These risks become fully evident only when problems arise. Off-balance sheet assets (guarantees, sureties, and other instruments) are commonly used in lending to large financial-industrial groups, particularly the defence sector.

"All this indicates that the banking system is accumulating structural problems, the resolution of which may take years and require systematic additional injections."