Buenos Aires, the risk to Milei's Argentine miracle
Javier Milei is right to be optimistic about the electoral future. Most of the signs emerging from the polls predict a victory for La Libertad Avanza on October 26. This is despite the significant setback in the Senate due to the alchemy that characterizes his political strategy. An unprecedented audacity combined with inexperience and ignorance of basic rules for institutional functioning. Citizen anger with the leadership of traditional parties helps to disguise this disturbing deficit and shape the Argentine miracle that Milei is sure he will embody.
Although she claims otherwise, the government knows that Victoria Villarruel neither seeks nor has any chance of taking center stage in the upcoming elections. However, it chose this argument to blame her for the defeat she suffered in last week's session thanks to Kirchnerism's ability to capitalize on the 24 governors' anger with the president. This was not only due to the withholding of funds guaranteed to them by law, but also due to the unfulfilled promise of electoral pacts in most of her provinces.
Corrientes is the case in point that raised alarm bells. Milei suspended negotiations with Gustavo Valdés for a consensus candidate to succeed him in the August 31 elections. With this development, there will be four candidates competing for that position. Whatever the outcome, a weak government will emerge in a province whose financial weaknesses limit its institutional stability. Corrientes has had 17 federal interventions, the last two at the end of the 20th century.
These are insufficient details to halt the libertarian momentum, capable of paying exorbitant rates to instill distrust in the currency market's boldness. These turbulences force Milei to focus her attention on Villarruel, who simply adheres to the role mandated by the Constitution to be among the four political figures with the best public image. Milei shares the podium with her, Cristina , and Patricia Bullrich.
The President's sister ordered the Minister of Security to attack Villarruel for not leaving the session. In other words, for adhering to her mandate. The price of insubordination Bullrich is paying for resisting her candidacy for senator for the city. Some of her advisors downplay the fact that she raised this issue with Milei during their breakfast on Sunday. They insist, however, that they analyzed the potential repercussions of exchange rate instability on the streets and the advisability of Bullrich remaining in that position. Others suggest that making her a candidate now would be equivalent to neutralizing another nomination in 2027. Villarruel awaits that date, but so does Cristina, if a court other than this one reviews her conviction. Bullrich's positive image (47%) is equal to Milei's in the June Latam Pulse-Bloomberg poll. Villarruel's (30%) is equivalent to Axel Kicillof's. The same survey gives Cristina 39 points. Two more than in the month of May.
This growth disrupted what seemed a foregone conclusion two months earlier: the assured victory of La Libertad Avanza in the September 7 elections in the province of Buenos Aires. Somos Buenos Aires is part of this reconfiguration. Kirchnerism attributes its emergence on the scene to the misunderstandings within La Libertad Avanza to negotiate a coalition with the opposition, which, of course, it celebrates. Especially since this coalition would be in a position to capture the leaders of the Pro Party (Pro), who have no place in the agreement that Cristian Ritondo is negotiating with Sebastián Pareja, Karina Milei's representative. Ritondo faces the risk of a major crisis if, as head of the Pro Party, he fails to ensure that Soledad Martínez and Pablo Petrecca are not part of that agreement. The mayor of Vicente López is his deputy, and the mayor of Junín is his deputy.
Ritondo's problem is that Pareja offered him six, not eight, spots on the legislative lists, as he informed Martínez and Petrecca. Martínez defends the reelection of Cristian Gribaudo for the First Section, and Petrecca defends the reelection of Yamila Alonso for the Fourth. Ritondo specifies Petrecca's place for Matías Ranzini , a deputy from the Second Section without reelection because he has held the position since 2017. Seven senators are elected in the Fourth Section, and eight in the First Section. Together, they represent two-thirds of the 23 positions up for renewal this year in that body. The Senate must resolve the four vacancies in the Buenos Aires Supreme Court in 2026. Gribaudo answers to Daniel Angelici, someone always interested in judicial matters. Ranzini answers to Ritondo, Sergio Torres ' mentor. The reason for appointing the former 12th federal judge was his contribution to the recapture of the three escapees from the General Alvear prison in December 2016. Those who investigated that case doubt Torres's contribution. Ezequiel Cortelletti, his rapporteur, negotiated with Pareja the retirement of Daniel Soria and Hilda Kogan, the other two active members of the Court. Pareja demands to occupy the first two spots on all sectional lists.
Will he make an exception for Ranzini so Ritondo can justify the agreement? The price Guillermo Montenegro and Diego Valenzuela would pay to have first place in the Fifth and First Sections would be to lead them. Would Milei accept that the mayors of General Pueyrredón and Tres de Febrero be mere token candidates and not assume their seats?
Not even the help provided by Mauricio Macri would have been enough for Ritondo to persuade the mayors of Campana, Coronel Pringles, and Puán. The mayor of Pergamino, Javier Martínez , sealed an alliance with Hechos, the party that will represent the mayor of San Nicolás, Santiago Passaglia, in the Second Section. Eleven of the 46 deputies up for renewal this year are elected there.
Somos Buenos Aires reportedly agreed with Passaglia not to compete in the Second Section to benefit Hechos. If these third-party candidates achieve good results in the Second and Fourth Sections, Fuerza Patria will most likely prevail. Something similar could happen in the First Section, where the list headed by Tigre Mayor Julio Zamora could tip the current technical tie with La Libertad Avanza in favor of Kirchnerism. Zamora defeated Malena Galmarini in Tigre in 2023 with a neighborhood list. Massa's wife is reportedly insisting on being a Fuerza Patria candidate for first councilor. Massa's claimed influence in Somos Buenos Aires seems belied by the opposition to having Graciela Camaño or Emilio Monzó head his list in the Third Section.
The lack of opposition Kicillof encountered to his allies leading the ballots in the eight sections leads his collaborators to predict a tumultuous weekend with La Cámpora. The registration deadline is midnight this Saturday. For now, Vice Governor Verónica Magario is expected to lead the Third Section, and Infrastructure Minister Gabriel Katopodis is expected to lead the First Section.
Curiously, Julio Alak opposes Government Minister Carlos Bianco leading the list in the Eighth. The mayor of La Plata was the one who benefited most from Kicillof's public works and funds provided through the capital tax. The services paid by the Buenos Aires government to that municipality for the services it provides.
The renewed optimism is so great that Martín Mena has reportedly offered Carlos Rívolo the position of Attorney General. To achieve this, the Minister of Justice would need to secure impeachment proceedings against Julio Conte Grand before the Buenos Aires Legislature and remove him by a two-thirds vote in the Senate. This consensus is impossible to achieve without La Libertad Avanza in the next Legislature. Perhaps a similar one to the one being explored to expand the Supreme Court.
Rívolo is the federal prosecutor who investigated the attack on Cristina and is refusing to hand it over to María Eugenia Capuchetti . Federal Judge No. 5 was the first to intervene in that case. Capuchetti is trying to determine the role of the Federal Police in protecting Cristina the night Fernando Sabag Montiel allegedly attempted to shoot her. The Federal Police reports to the Ministry of Security, which was headed at the time by Aníbal Fernández .
Some reports allude to an alleged and unknown connection between the former mayor of Quilmes and Mena. Capuchetti has filed a legal complaint against Mena for lying in a statement in the case of the attack on Cristina. The Buenos Aires province justice minister is one of the former president's legal advisors.
lanacion
