Consulting firms estimate July inflation at 1.9% and highlight that the core index in the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) was the lowest since 2020.

July inflation accelerated compared to the 1.6% recorded in June , driven by seasonal factors linked to the winter holidays and some adjustments in regulated services. Despite the dollar's surge, exchange rate volatility has not, for now, had a significant impact on the shelves.

According to various private consulting firms, last month's Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at around 1.9% monthly , while core inflation in Greater Buenos Aires was the lowest since May 2020, excluding seasonal and regulated items.

Among the items with the greatest increases were recreation and culture—driven by tourist packages—home furnishings—due to the salary adjustment for domestic workers—and miscellaneous goods and services, especially toiletries.

In the case of food and non-alcoholic beverages, increases were moderate. According to Analytica, the variation in the fifth week of July was 0.3% in the Greater Buenos Aires, with a monthly average of 2.1%. The largest increases were observed in vegetables (+3.8%) and fruits (+3%), while fish and seafood (+1%) and oils and fats (+0.8%) showed smaller increases.

C&T Economic Advisors reported a monthly increase of 1.9% for July in the Greater Buenos Aires region. According to its analysis, the core index was 1.4%, the lowest since May 2020. Recreation and culture led the increases, followed by domestic services and food, especially vegetables and baked goods.

The consulting firm Equilibra agreed with the estimates: both the general and core CPI rose 1.9% . Regulated prices increased 2.4%, and seasonal prices, less than 2%. Gasoline, public transportation, and hotels accounted for a large part of the increases.

Other sectors, such as healthcare, showed some slowdown compared to previous months, while clothing saw a typical decline in July, explained by seasonal sales. In transportation, the spike in prices was due to the rise in airfares due to the winter holidays.

Libertad y Progreso also registered a 1.9% increase, with cumulative inflation in the first half of the year reaching 17.3% and a year-over-year variation of 36.5%, the lowest since January 2021.

Despite the exchange rate jump, most surveys agree that it was not significantly reflected in prices during July. According to reports, this allowed for a recovery in the real exchange rate, both bilaterally and multilaterally, of around 5% to 5.5%.

" July deepened the recovery trend of the real exchange rate, with increases of 5% against the dollar and 15% compared to last December ," C&T detailed.

The Ministry of Public Finance (LyP) warned that the month was also marked by " seasonal factors such as the Christmas bonus, increases in fuel and services, and a context of greater uncertainty due to the YPF ruling and volatility following the expiration of the LeFis (Financial Services Law )." However, the overall index managed to remain below 2% for the third consecutive month.