On the hunt for an outsider

Citizen disenchantment with the political class has been the driving force behind change in the Mexico of alternation. Anti-PRI sentiment—well-read by a strategic group led by Ramón Muñoz and Eduardo Sojo—led the PAN to Los Pinos for the first time, with an outsider (Vicente Fox) as its battering ram.

The impunity of the political class is unforgivable to a segment of the population. For them and for another segment, beneficiaries of welfare programs, it was the Obradorist rhetoric that demonized the power mafia and succeeded in bringing the partisan left to the National Palace, after two failed attempts. Resentment dominated hope, and polarization has prevailed ever since.

A misreading of Mexicans' social mood cemented the opposition alliance to select Xóchitl Gálvez to compete against the ruling party's candidate. Guido Lara's study was accurate in detecting the electorate's fears and hopes, but it failed to detect the Hidalgo senator's insolvencies. A colossal failure that served to prove that the most important thing in a campaign is the candidate, not the electoral apparatus that supports him.

Defeating Obradorism in 2024 was an impossible mission. One year into the Clément administration, the fissures in the second echelon of the Fourth Transformation are evident, and for this reason, a new alignment within the opposition (which transcends political parties) has been hastened. This time, however, there can be no misdiagnosis.

Against the backdrop of massive abstention and ongoing confrontation with the elites, of which the current leaders are already part, a space for disruption opens up. Aggression garners ratings and likes and solidifies the support of fanatics, but it alienates the lukewarm, who constitute the majority.

Whether they're equal or not is irrelevant. People are fed up with the rhetoric of politicians who don't listen to them, and one in three Mexicans believes all politicians—Morena supporters or opposition members—are disgusting. That's the foundation for an (until now anonymous) outsider, for an alternative.

Morena has made a clear mistake: Obrador's supporters don't argue why they're better, but rather that their opponents are bad. They don't realize this affects them all.

In Mexico in 2025, what determines the vote? Do citizens decide based on welfare programs, fear of criminal groups, or Donald Trump's tariff policy? Is it possible to break the ruling party's logic or cause an implosion within Morena?

The discovery of a winning formula is accompanied by the selection of the candidate who will challenge the standard-bearer (or is it a standard-bearer?) of the Claudist regime in 2030. The President's impasses in Year 1, her decision not to break with Obradorism, have opened a path for a definitive alternation despite the electoral reform in progress.

Recent information—shared among a select group of business leaders and political leaders—identifies that 29% of voters detest the acronyms that make up the party system. Those who abstain, however, could be the ones who bring about definitive change.

Side effects

INCLUSIVE . In parallel with the annual UN assembly, a World Summit against Extremism took place in New York, bringing together leaders Lula da Silva of Brazil; Gabriel Boric of Chile; Pedro Sánchez of Spain; Gustavo Pedro of Colombia; and Yamandú Ors of Uruguay. This club of progressive dignitaries has a seat reserved for Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. And one mission: to halt the advance of the far right worldwide. The Mexican president is expected to attend the third meeting, which will take place in the summer of 2026 in Madrid.