The moves of the Historic Pact for the 2026 elections: this is how the list for the Senate is being prepared

Amid the ministerial shake-up in the government of President Gustavo Petro, the Historic Pact is intensifying its movements in view of the presidential and legislative elections of 2026.

On the one hand, there is a lot of expectation about who will be chosen to compete for the Casa de Nariño. One of the strongest names is that of the director of Prosperidad Social, Gustavo Bolívar.

In the next few days, his departure from Prosperidad Social will be made official and he does not rule out running for the Presidency, despite the fact that in the race for the Mayor of Bogotá in 2023 he was defeated and did not even come in second place.

“The probability is high, I am sincere, especially given the results of the polls, where I have been growing since October: I started with four points, then I went to six, in others to nine, and in the last one I reached exactly 11.9,” he said on Monday in response to reports of his departure from the government, which he clarified has not yet been agreed upon with President Petro, to whom he handed in his resignation letter since the president himself requested the formal resignation of his cabinet.

Sources from the Historic Pact indicate that Bolívar's departure is imminent and he will seek to gain the support of the left, which, President Petro has insisted, must be re-elected.

The issue is not whether I am re-elected or not, the issue is that the project must be re-elected, the program must be re-elected, we must do more, more and more.

“The issue is not whether I am re-elected or not, the issue is that the project must be re-elected, the program must be re-elected, we must do more, more and more. This is just beginning. And this new beginning of the Colombian homeland, hopefully Latin American and Caribbean, is the beginning of a real, living and multi-colored democracy,” the president said on Saturday.

But the movements in the cabinet have raised serious doubts. In recent months there has been speculation about the possibility of Susana Muhamad seeking the Pact's endorsement for the 2026 presidential elections.

He has not ruled it out after his resignation from the Ministry of the Environment, where he became one of the most visible faces of the National Government.

“People tell me that it would be worthwhile to run for mayor within the Pact. I have also been told that I could run for Mayor of Bogotá, and Petro told me to go to the Senate,” he said in an interview with Eva Rey. However, in recent days there have been strong rumors about his possible arrival at the National Planning Department, despite the fact that he said he would not sit at the same table as Armando Benedetti, the designated Minister of the Interior.

People tell me that it would be worthwhile to run for mayor within the Pact. I have also been told that I could run for Mayor of Bogotá, and Petro told me to go to the Senate.

If Muhamad reaches that position, she would automatically be disqualified from participating in the 2026 elections, regardless of whether she goes to the Senate or the Presidency. But there are those who say that she is the candidate for the Mayorship of Bogotá in 2027.

There are other left-wing sectors knocking on the doors, such as the questioned former mayor of Medellín, Daniel Quintero, who is not accepted by the hardline supporters of Petrism. But it cannot be ignored that Quintero has managed to maintain important positions in the government. For now, Quintero is closer to Carlos Caicedo, former governor of Magdalena, who could also play in some way in the left-wing struggle. Camilo Romero, who will leave the embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in the next few days, is also aspiring.

From the Senate, María José Pizarro would aspire, who with her move to the Upper House has gained more and more visibility and has even scored in some polls.

For now, they are beginning to uncover the cards and when the cabinet is reorganized, the panorama may become a little clearer.

There is more movement in the House of Representatives, where representatives of the Pact began to move to see who would make the jump to the Senate in what would be the list of the sole left-wing party, which has not yet been fully formed, but the idea is to group together various forces of the coalition with which Gustavo Petro came to power.

The names being considered after an initial meeting of the caucus are David Racero, Alejandro Toro, Gabriel Becerra, Alejandro Ocampo, María Fernanda Carrascal and Heráclito Landinez.

And today there would be several vacancies of the Pact in the Senate, such as that of Pizarro and Alexander López, who would be disqualified if he assumed the role of Chief of Staff, among others.

But representatives would not be the only ones on that list, which would be closed. Figures such as Andrés Camacho, who left the Ministry of Mines and Energy, could also land there.

The order of the list will be a real contest and what they have asked for is that there be democracy and parity in defining it.

The idea of ​​the Pact is to have a good number of seats, even more than those currently held – 20 in the Senate and 28 in the House – in order to achieve greater control of Congress, whether they are again in government or in opposition.

But analyst Alejandro Chala, a political scientist at the National University, does not see it as simple.

"Petro will not be on the ballot this time. Petro has a problem and it is that he does not know how to endorse the majority of his votes, which, in the end, are only loyal to him and not to a project or a party. The number of votes will probably decrease because the knock-on effect is eliminated, but it is also very likely that there will be a punishment vote towards the ruling party," said the academic.

However, the alliances are just beginning and as the months go by and it is revealed who is who in this anticipated electoral contest, the movements on the left will become easier to read.