Southeast Asia caught up in Trump's protectionist offensive

For Southeast Asia, it's the end of an enchanted interlude. This region of 650 million inhabitants had been able to take advantage of the trade war between Beijing and Washington that took place during Donald Trump's first term (2017-2021) by attracting industrial investment from China, while increasing its exports to the United States. Vietnam saw its trade surplus with the United States almost double between 2017 and 2024, reaching $123 billion.

But the region is now being caught up in the rise in US customs duties, which have reached 19% for Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia, and 20% for Vietnam, levels close to those temporarily imposed on China (30%), with which negotiations are continuing. For these countries, the rates are roughly half those in effect since April, when they exceeded 45%. With the exception of Laos and Burma (40%).

With an economy largely dependent on exports, Southeast Asia is one of the regions hardest hit in the world by US President Donald Trump's protectionist offensive. The Asian Development Bank has also revised its growth forecast for 2025 downwards, from 4.7% to 4.2%, noting "signs of slowdown, particularly for countries dependent on external demand" as early as the first quarter.

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